Episode Transcript
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[00:01:10] Speaker B: Welcome to this week's edition of in the Clubhouse with EMD Baseball. I'm Andy Kiri Kutis, joined by my Wonderful Co host, Mr. Keith Glasser. How we doing?
[00:01:19] Speaker C: Great. How are you?
[00:01:20] Speaker B: Good.
We recently released a podcast about why it's difficult to evaluate high school hitters.
So kind of on the same wavelength, we're going to talk about why it's much easier to evaluate high school pitchers than it is to evaluate high school hitters. And for me, if I was going to try to sum this up really quickly before we talk about it, I think it comes down to data and video.
I think it is significantly easier to paint a very high quality picture of whether a kid's stuff is good enough in the present moment.
And the other pieces of the projectability puzzle I think are much easier to project now because I think the we've at least in, in some way, shape or form have unlocked the code of being able to get guys to throw harder.
But with the development of trackman, with the quality of video and the ease of which video can, as well as just the general data that's accessible for high school players these days, whether it's pitch counts, strike percentages, all that kind of good stuff. When you compile that all together, I think it's significantly easier to make an informed decision on a high school pitcher than it is to do it with a high school hitter these days. So I'll start us off there and kick it over to you for some thoughts.
[00:02:54] Speaker C: Yeah, I think the data is probably the easiest thing in today's world.
Stuff that was not accessible 15, 20 years ago is readily accessible I think the other part of it too is that the data kind of confirms what guys like us who coach for so long kind of anecdotally knew. Right? Like you, you knew certain things in, in the recruiting world of, of watching pitchers that like, hey, you know, the Velo's not there, but he spins a break ball at a high, high rate and it's, it's firm and it's hard and it moves like the Velo's in there. Eventually, you know, I, I think those things start to like, it confirms what we kind of already knew.
But I think the data also kind of extrapolates out the, you know, outlier pitches, things that guys can do that are a little bit different than other people. You know, if it's a change up or a curveball or a slider, things like that, that, that coaches are looking for to kind of say like that's, that's an outlier pitch that I can play at our level.
And the data supports that way more than it ever has before, you know, but it's, you know, I, I think the other thing, and it's not just the data for the arms at the high school level. I think that it's a lot easier at the, the college level to look and say like, okay, these are, we have a massive amount of, of data where we can go to have guys that we've recruited and this is where they were when they came in. This is where they were after four years. We can kind of, I'm not saying you're going to recruit the same type of guy, but guys that kind of fit this mold in our program, that we can continue to move on forward to get them better to, to be this type of player. And this player ended up being an all conference player. This guy became an all American. I remember it being this and that. You know, I think you have to be a little careful of it. I think you, you can kind of go down that rabbit hole and be like, well, you know, we're going to recruit Andy Kirikidis because he an outlier slider. Slider and he dominated. Well, not everyone is going to have that slider. So you can kind of recruit the same Andy Kira Kittis over and over and over again. And you know, of the seven that you recruited, one of them turns out to be the same type of player.
You know, so I think you have to be a little bit careful on that standpoint. But for the most part, you know, with the amount of indoor facilities and the Trackmans and the Rap Sotos and everything that's out there, the amount of data that you can get on hitter or on pitchers that you're, you're recruiting, you can kind of match it up to guys that are in your program and see the, the where they're at and where their trajectory looks like based off of their video, how they move, what their arm looks like, the movement of their pitches, things like that of like, okay, if they're, you know, vertical break is this or their horizontal break is this and whatever it is like you can kind of target types of, of of arms that way and it becomes a little bit of an easier way to evaluate and, and recruit those types of players because you have the data to support what it is that you're looking to do.
[00:06:06] Speaker B: Yeah, those reports are really telling and to your point. I, I think one of the, the big takeaways from what you just said that I think people need to understand is that you have all that information on your own guys.
And if you see a high school guy who has similar traits to a guy on your staff, that's really good. That's usually a pretty good sign.
And I'll add to what I said about the, the, the availability of the data and making it easier to evaluate pitchers. I think what it also does, I think it saves time, right? Because you get all that information and you go, that's not a guy that I like. For whatever reason it is. Maybe you, you know, you value certain things from a size arm slot, release point, all that kind of stuff that, that gets dialed into the data these days. Maybe there's certain traits that you really value, guys who do certain really things. Maybe there's certain things that you're trying to look for when you're building out your staff. There's some guys who like to make sure they have some diversity of arm slots and different types of breaking balls so they can mix and match in the bullpen and provide different looks. Like the, the level of detail that the staff and coaches go into these days with how they're trying to build a staff is bigger than just let's just take as many good arms as we can. I think it's a little bit more detailed than that, but it saves you time so you can do a deeper dive on the other things that help a guy be really good. The mound presence, the strike throwing ability, the compete factor, the character stuff that you're trying to better understand. So instead of looking at 20 different guys, the data that you get might get you down to eight. And you can do a really Good evaluation of those eight so you can get to the five that you're trying to bring in, in that class.
So I think it saves a ton of time and it's, it's kind of apples to apples. Like if you're 88 to 91 with an 83 mile an hour slider, it doesn't matter your competition in the batter's box, like, that's what you are. Where, you know, we talked about with hitters, one of the hard things to really dive into is can you handle good pitching?
If you're 88 to 91 and you can't get people out, well, then yeah, that's easier to say no to. But it's just a more apples to apples comparison of, you know, you know, what it takes to play at that level from a metric standpoint. You know, everybody has outliers, but there's not nearly as many many of them as people think. You know, I love the. Well, Greg Maddox is only, you know, he barely threw 90 and it's like, well, yeah, if they had Trackman, I'm pretty sure he had some outlier pitchers back in the day. That probably made him kind of elite. When you mix in the command stuff, right, but everybody like go to that type of stuff. But the reality is, is that if you're going to pitch in the acc, you're going to pitch in the sec.
There's certain velocities that you need to get to and if you don't, you better do some other stuff that's super, super high level in order to be good. Whether it's 65, 70% slider guy, high level command, unique slot, you know, some, some outlier metrics in terms of like, I know some guys are really into the release height, release point extension, so they can really try to calculate the overall value of the fastball quality.
So I just, I think there's so much there and most of these pitching coaches are so well informed on the metrics and the different values that they hold and they, most of them have a pretty clear picture of the things that they want to bring on to their staff. And that Trackman report coupled with data gives them a really good understanding of whether they need to go and find out if that guy can actually compete. You know, does he have the character traits and the toughness that's required for them to be able to be a part of a team and compete at the next level?
[00:10:08] Speaker C: If you're the parent of a high school baseball player with college aspirations, you already know the recruiting process can feel overwhelming. Endless showcases, nonstop emails, and big promises with very little clarity.
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I don't want to say I despise the argument, but, like, it's a weak argument. Like, going to Greg Maddox is like, yeah, okay. Like you're going to a guy who was put on this earth to make a baseball move in a way that not a lot of people were ever capable of doing. And same thing with Pedro, right? Like, how many dudes and I, he's not that big, right? Like, he's like 175 pounds. Like how many dudes his size can legitimately throw a baseball 95 plus miles an hour?
Because there's not a lot of them.
[00:11:50] Speaker B: No. I heard something the other day that I thought was pretty poignant. You don't win with a team full of exceptions.
[00:11:56] Speaker C: No, you can't.
[00:11:59] Speaker B: No, the exception. You can only have so many guys on your team that are the exception to the rule. There's a reason. There's a rule. There's a reason when you turn on Major League Baseball that guys look the same.
You know, there's a reason that guys are 6 foot 3 and 225 pounds. It's because that place. It doesn't mean that the little dude can't be good, but there's a reason you don't see, you know, eight Dustin Pedrois running around every team in the big leagues. Because that dude is an outlier. He's the exception. He's the exception to the rule. It's the same thing in the NFL, right? I'm sure there's plenty of people here. If you watch baseball, you probably watch football to a certain extent.
There's a reason that the guy who's undersized oftentimes doesn't have success in the NFL is because the guys who are undersized, they're exceptions to the rule. There's not teams out there scrapping and crawling to find Darren Sprols. It's because Darren Sprouls was, like, wildly unique.
You know what I'm saying?
[00:13:01] Speaker C: Like, yeah, no, like David Eckstein, when we had Eric Kraz on, like, it's like those guys are, they're, they're outliers.
They're, they're wildly unique in what it is that they're capable of doing. And, you know, like, going to the, the Mike Trouts or the Bryce Harpers or the Barry Bonds or like, all those guys, like, they're, they're put on this earth to play baseball and, you know, they're exceptional at everything it is that they do. But, like, they're even better at baseball, you know. But I, I, I just think that, like, you know, especially when it comes to arms, you know, we always, the, the argument for a lot of people is always like, well, Greg Max didn't have to throw it 95. Like, yeah, man, there's not a lot of people who make the ball move horizontally 47 inches. Like, he might be the only one who's ever been able to do that. So, like, like, you can't argue that he didn't have the velo, because the truth, like, truth be told, like, if he wanted to ramp it up and, and run it up into the low to mid-90s back then, he could, but he didn't have to.
And, you know, that's the art of pitching. But I think, I just think that, like, where we're at now from a baseball standpoint and where it's gone, like, we've unlocked the velo standpoint where a lot of guys can, can throw the absolute piss out of the baseball. Like, dudes are throwing nitro nowadays more than, more so than they ever have before. And I do think the pendulum is going to swing back eventually where you're like, you're going to have to be able to pitch, you're gonna have to be able to command it, you're gonna have to be able to have secondary stuff, because I do think that, and you know, we, we released a podcast recently about evaluating the, the high school hitter, but, like, college hitters are, they aren't scared of the velo anymore.
And, and I don't think scared is the right term. Right. Like, I use it from the standpoint of, like, when, when you and I played, like, we didn't see 93, 95 96, 97, 98. Every weekend we saw upper 80s, low nines, but like it wasn't, we didn't see that mid-90s guy. Every weekend where nowadays like that's what you see at the Division 1 level, especially the upper ends of Division 1 level. Like that's what you're seeing for the most part every weekend. So guys see this all the time and they're, they're used to it. So it doesn't, that Velo doesn't get them out as much as it used to five, six, seven, eight, ten years ago.
The secondary stuff, it's the ability to command. Can you pitch in, you know, can you, can you, can you locate that ball on the black away and make it, you know, and can you make it come back to be a strike? Can you back a guy up off the plate and get him uncomfortable in the box? Can you be able to spin it where you can get that guy out on his front foot and be able to wave at that slider or that curveball? You know, do you have a change up that's going to fade away from left handed hitters if you're a right handed arm and get guys out? So like I do think the pendulum is going to eventually swing back, but I do think that there is in the guys that we talk to and the guys that are, are in it now. Like the Velo? Yes. Like it's always going to play right, like that. It's not to say that it's not going to play, but I do think the ability to be able to command your arsenal of pitches and you know, the tunneling and everything else that comes off with it nowadays. But I do think the ability to be able to command is, is going to be a little bit more prevalent with arms and I think that stuff's easy to, is a lot easier to be able to evaluate as well.
[00:16:36] Speaker B: Right.
[00:16:37] Speaker C: Like you can show up and be like, well he throws his curveball quite a bit and he gets a lot of swing and miss.
So I think that's probably going to play up right. Like you know, if you're getting swing and miss on a lot of your pitches, you like, you know, if you're getting 70 swing and misses at high school, like you're not gonna get 70 in high school in college, but like you might be getting 40 and that's, that's a pretty good starting point. If you're getting 20 swing and miss in high school, like you're probably not gonna get a lot of swing and miss in college. You know, so, like, I, I think, though, that that stuff is a little bit easier to evaluate from, from that standpoint than it is the. The.
[00:17:16] Speaker B: Yeah, for sure. Just data just paints such a. Such a clearer picture. And when you get to college, like, you have to be able to do both. You know, throwing 92, 93 these days isn't enough anymore. You can't just.
Can't just middle, middle stuff. Because you throw 93, you got to be able to do other stuff, and that goes at any level.
I don't care what level you're pitching at. Like, if you throw, if you're 90, 91, like, you still have to be able to do some other stuff. There's plenty of guys in college baseball who throw 92, 93 miles an hour who, who can't get anybody out because they're behind accounts, they're breaking stuff. Doesn't. Doesn't really threaten anybody. And, you know, like, to your point, these guys are prepared to hit velocity and it's.
It makes it easier on them if they know what's coming.
You know, if you lose count leverage, you can't cross count guys, you can't pitch backwards.
You know, there's so much more to the pitching game. But the amount of data that we have now, you can get way further down the road with a high quality evaluation than you can with a high school hitter. And I think that's kind of the, kind of. The big takeaway here is that it's easier to walk away from a pitcher and feel really confident that you're by your evaluation after one or two times seeing them, plus the data than it is watching a hitter take six or eight at bats and make a decision on whether you think he's gonna be able to hit at your level.
[00:18:34] Speaker C: Agreed.
[00:18:35] Speaker B: All right, Anything else you want to add?
[00:18:37] Speaker C: No, sir.
[00:18:38] Speaker B: All right, well, thank you for listening, everybody. Hopefully you found that informative. Tune in next week. We'll have some more for you. Talk to you then. Thanks, everybody.
Thank you for listening this week. If you're watching on YouTube, go ahead and hit that subscribe button and smash that like button for us. Check us out on Apple Podcasts, Google podcasts, as well as Spotify. You can follow us on Twitter and Instagram MD Baseball.
If you want to find out what me and Keith do to help families and players navigate the recruiting process, go ahead and check us out on emdbaseball.com take a few minutes to check out our new online academy. I promise you'll get some good information out of that. Thanks again. For listening. Check in with you next week.
