Episode Transcript
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[00:01:10] Speaker B: welcome to this week's edition of in the Clubhouse with EMD Baseball. I'm Andy Kiri Kutis joined by my
[00:01:16] Speaker C: Wonderful Co host, Mr. Keith Glasser.
[00:01:18] Speaker B: How we doing sir?
[00:01:19] Speaker D: Great. How are you?
[00:01:20] Speaker B: Good. We are going to provide a quick update on a topic that people are seemingly very interested in, which is the potential 5 for 5 rule which would flip NCAA eligibility slightly on its head.
A couple things to note here.
We'll give it a quick outline just so people are kind of dialed into what this looks like. But the new rule athletes would have a five year window to play college sports from their 19th birthday or their high school graduation date, whichever comes first.
Essentially red shirting is no longer going to be a thing.
You basically get five years. So a lot of these waivers and red shirt years and other ways that players are able to acquire additional eligibility that we've seen in recent years will essentially go away. The only reason that a, that the clock could stop is because of military service, religious exemptions and pregnancy. So this will certainly have some impacts if and when it gets voted. But the latest news, Coach Glass is they're going to vote in June, I believe.
[00:02:40] Speaker D: Yeah, we kicked it. We kicked the can down the road.
[00:02:46] Speaker B: The committee met on the 22nd of May and basically decided that they were squared away to vote. But they're not going to do it until June.
I mean my, I, I think they're doing it because they want to remove any ambiguity around the 26 eligibility.
[00:03:00] Speaker D: Yeah.
[00:03:00] Speaker B: Which we can outline kind of the, some of the stuff that has been seemingly written in pencil at this point. But you got any thoughts on this at this Point. I mean, I know we touched on it previously, but anything else come to mind?
[00:03:15] Speaker D: Yeah, I mean I, I think that you're.
It's certainly going to be interesting. I think the five years, it makes it more clean obviously from the quote unquote age based model where we're more or less trying to eradicate the 6th and 7th and 8th and 9th year waivers that people are getting. You're going to get five years from whether you turn 19 and you're a postgrad or you graduate from high school, your clock starts then, you know. But it, I do think that it's still going to be difficult from a roster management perspective.
The other thing, and I guess I, I'm unclear on this at this point is is this, we're assuming that this is going to be everybody, right? D12 and three.
[00:04:05] Speaker B: I think that's the assumption that this will be across NCAA and, and then it would.
[00:04:10] Speaker D: They, they also. You're also throwing in an antitrust into this, correct?
[00:04:16] Speaker B: I think there's speculation of that. So there, it's, it's funny that there's all kinds of stuff flying around with eligibility and I'm sure we're going to end up doing a full long on this at some point. But there was a new, there's new legislation that just came out today.
Ted Cruz and Maria Cantwell.
Basically it's the, called the Protect Scholars Sports act, which encompasses some of what we're talking about. But I think it goes a lot deeper, which I have not been able to fully read. This is probably months away, but the 5 for 5 is seemingly going to be a part of this if it ultimately passes. But for right now, I believe the NCAA is more focused on trying to vote the 5 for 5 and potentially add in the one year transfer rule, which I know that the best thing they could do.
[00:05:10] Speaker D: I think the one time transfer is the best thing we can do.
You know, I think that, and this is probably for a different day, but the amount of people that are jumping into the transfer portal right now before it's even open season in the transfer portal is absurd. And you know, I, I think I have my own thoughts on it and, and the advice people are getting and where it's coming from.
But I think the five for five thing is I, I like the idea. I'm very interested to see the implementation of it and how it, how it's going to affect rosters moving forward.
You know, I, I haven't done the math but you know, it's going to be difficult to keep Four year windows, I mean we've done it right? But like we rosters have ballooned and we have DSA's and all the other things that are going on within that where rosters are bigger and they're not going to go away for what, another three years, the DSAs.
So you're still going to have some, you know, some higher, some higher roster numbers. But when we get to that, once they clear in another three years, you know, what is it going to look like with you know, a five year kind of window for 34 guys in baseball and some of the other sports. And I know that baseball, I think we talked about this before, I know it, I think it's a tight roster in a five year cycle with, with 34.
You know, I know there's a bunch of other sports out there that have voiced their concerns about it as well.
So it's not just baseball that's affected. This is going to obviously affect every single sport at the NCAA level, you know, and I think the easy way, and quite frankly, maybe I don't know if it does affect it nearly as much, maybe it just you have less guys in each class that you're bringing in because with a one time transfer, you know, you're probably not looking at the, the pool of transfers is probably going to be smaller, right? And then the, you know, you're just, instead of it being eight a class, let's call it, you know, eight or nine a class depending it's you know, seven a class, maybe it's one less guy a class that you're bringing in, whether it's through the portal, high school
[00:07:31] Speaker C: or
[00:07:33] Speaker D: juco route, you know what I mean? Because that like that gets you around 35.
So we're at 34, you know, you're, you're looking at class instead of a class of eight or nine, you're looking at a class of seven.
I don't think it's going to change.
You know, I don't necessarily think it's going to change timeline type stuff.
[00:07:54] Speaker B: Right.
[00:07:54] Speaker D: I think that in a five year window, a one time transfer and you know, 34 man rosters, coaches are going to have to be right and families are going to have to make the right decision.
It's going to be even more crucial that you make the right decision because you're not going to have multiple outs to be able to transfer to a bunch of different places because you made the wrong decision or you know, you feel like you're slighted and you know, the reality is you don't fit at the level you went to and you're still trying to chase it. Like you're gonna have to have honest conversations about where you fit and where you're gonna go and the opportunity and all of those things to make the right decision the first time because you're gonna get one, one out, one get out of jail free card for the Monopoly players out there, you know, so I, I don't know, like I'm split on it, right? Like I've given this a lot of thought and like part of me is like we're, it's going to be hard in a five year cycle with this but you know, I, is it, you know what I mean? Like maybe it's just one less guy, one or two less guys, a class that you're bringing in and you're staying on a five year cycle and you know, but the flip side to that I think, and this is where I struggle too, is that you know, it's going to be hard if you have 14 freshman sophomores that you need to contribute.
So you're going to need to like, you're going to need to nail it.
From a recruiting standpoint,
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[00:10:30] Speaker B: yeah, it's the one year transfer and this potentially coming into play is really interesting to me because as we know the, the transfer portal, it can happen multitude of ways. Right? Guys can go in because it's not the right fit. Guys go in because they think they got a chance to kind of level up and then there's guys who are in the portal because the coach says hey man, it's not going to work out here.
And how that ultimately works will be interesting because I think what will happen, this is Baseball specific for me, I, I'm not well, well versed enough to talk about all the other sports, but I think the reality for college baseball is, is that most programs aren't going to keep guys for five years.
If you're at name whatever sec school and you're a fifth year senior.
I just, that scenario to me is really rare because you're either probably good enough to play professional baseball or you're probably not good enough to help them. And they're going to tell you to go somewhere else because they're going to go get somebody who can.
And then I think most college guys who play at the mid or lower level Division 1 schools, if you're a good player, I'd say Marist, our alma mater, right. And you're there for four years and you've put together a nice career there, you're probably doing your fifth year somewhere else.
So I don't know how many guys ultimately stay on rosters for that fifth year. Which brings me back to the portal, which I think will become, I don't know it'll be quite as bad as Covid, but you're going to have three recruit, you're going to have three classes of kids who are going to get that fifth year and I doubt most of those kids are going to finish their career at the same school that they started. One way or another, they're either going to get told that they don't fit, they're going to look to level up or they're going to go somewhere where they have a chance to play. Or if it's that fifth year, you probably try to go level up or maybe pursue a graduate degree that is very specific to something that you're looking at. So I think you're going to see a log jam in the portal, at least for the first couple years and then it might start to normalize a little bit.
But to your point, as long as there's a 34 man roster that was designed for a four year attrition model, it's going to be a log jam. And I think this idea, and I've talked to, I bounce this, bounce this idea off a, a dozen plus college coaches and other guys that we trust and value their opinion and have thought about this as well.
I haven't had anybody think that this is going to benefit high school guys. I don't know if it hurts them.
Right. And I think there's a big difference. I don't think it necessarily hurts the high school guy, but I think there's this idea that's been floating around on social media that, well, if guys get a fifth year coaches are going to be more likely to take a projectable high school kid.
But when you only have 34 roster spots, you don't have time to take two or three high school kids who might be good as juniors because you, you don't have enough wiggle room on your roster. So I don't know, I don't think it hurts high school guys, but I think this idea that a fifth year is going to be really beneficial for high school guys immediately. I think that logic is also a little bit flawed, so have to see how it plays out. But I just have yet to be convinced that college coaches are all of a sudden going to be taking chances on high school guys who aren't quite ready to play for them.
[00:14:11] Speaker D: I don't think that is something that would be ultimately true.
I think the, the grad transfer thing at the division level, like division three to two, two to one, three to one grad school model I think is the most likely of outcomes. I think you're right. At the upper levels, I don't know how many guys are going to actually be at a program for five years.
There's a lot of schools out there that don't have grad school or only have very minimal grad school options at the school, you know, in mid major, division one and down, you know, so there, those guys might be looking for grad school opportunities for a year as a kind of plug and play.
I think it benefits Division 2 and 3. If you want my honest opinion. I, you know, there's no real roster limits at those schools unless they're imposed by the school themselves.
I think it, you know, those types of schools you can, you know, I know of a lot of Division 3 schools that are five year programs for certain academic requirements. I know, like when I coached rpi, we had a co turn program. It was a five year master's program. You opt into it, you know, and you're in school for five years, you graduate with your bachelor's and your master's together, right? So that kid can now play for five years and, and get his master's degree. And you know, hey, you could be a mechanical engineer and get your MBA or you can get your master's in mech e and play for all five years. Whereas in the past it was you played four. And then the fifth year you stayed and just, you know, did your, did your schoolwork and that was it. You know, I, I think it's way more beneficial at that level. Do I still think that there's going to be kids from those levels that are going to try to level up? Certainly I do. You're, it's still going to happen, but I think it benefits more of the division twos and threes of the world where, you know, there, there, there are more offerings from, you know, I don't want to say by and large, but some schools at most schools at the Division 3 level I think have, you know, more semblance of grad school and more opportunities to be able to do stuff at, at those academic institutions and you know, whether or not they have grad school. I also think that, you know, if you're at a, a higher end academic institution and you know, you have five years to play, you know, you could be like, you could become a dual or double major and instead of doing it in four, you can do it in five and graduate from Amherst as a math and science major. Let's say, you know, and you, you get a dual degree in math and science or you know, math and data analytics. You know what I mean? Like, I think it benefits a lot of those types of programs because there's no, there's no real roster limits, again, unless they're self imposed by the school.
And you know, let's be honest, at that level where, you know, some of those schools are not necessarily, you know, handing out money hand over fist from a merit scholarship standpoint, they would probably like another year of someone staying on campus and paying money to tuition to that school that otherwise, you know, under previous rules, you're out.
[00:17:28] Speaker B: You can't say that, Keith. You can't say that money drives decisions in college sports.
[00:17:33] Speaker D: Oh, I think, I think that the toothpaste is out of the tube on that one. There's no putting it back in.
But you know, I think that it, it definitely benefits those types of schools more so I think than the division ones. Right. Like even at Marist, you know, again, our alma mater, like there's not a lot of, there's not a lot of grad school offerings.
So you know, unless it's something specific to what it is that you're doing and you know you're going to stay for five years and play. Hey man, good on you. I love that place. Like I would have loved to stay a fifth year, but the reality is, you know, there's, you know, I know when I worked at Sienna and I don't know if it's been expanded since I left. It was a long time ago, almost 20 years, you know, but like, they really only had an MBA program. There wasn't any other real grad school offerings outside of that MBA program. So if you're a history major, let's say, you know, you don't really have a grad school option to, to stay at that school for a fifth year and play. You're going to have to go elsewhere if that's what you want to do. And I also think, you know, the flip side to this too is while the 5 and 5 is great, I think we've focused so much on football and basketball in this realm versus all the other sports. And I don't necessarily know how many 25 and 26 year olds are rolling around college baseball. I know that a lot of people say that you want, you should get older and do all these things. Yeah, I get it.
I get the argument. But not every kid that's going to go into college, you know, maybe it's a grandiose idea when you start of like, I got five years play, not every kid is going to take advantage of that fifth year either.
You know what I'm saying?
Not every single kid that enters in to play college sports is gonna walk out, you know, and be like, I'm, I'm definitely playing five. That I would argue that a good portion of kids are probably just gonna take four and be like, hey, you know, I'm gonna get my life started. I'm not playing professionally.
I'm good. You know, some kids might say, like, hey, you know, this is the only, I'm not playing professionally. It's the only chance I'm gonna be able to do it for a fifth year. And good on you. But I think that we're, we're, we're making the assumption that every single kid who's going to go into collegiate athletics is going to do this for five years.
And I, that I just, I can't, I can't get behind that idea. I think that there's going to be a lot more people that are going to be like, I'm good on four, I'll see you.
[00:20:15] Speaker B: Yeah, that'll be really interesting to see how it plays out because, you know, I mean, if you're a really productive Division 1 player, you know, regardless of whatever level, you're probably going to have an option to play a fifth year. If you're an unproductive Division 3 guy, the market's probably not going to be as good, but there's going to be a lot of Division 3 guys who put together really nice careers.
That mature and get physical that are going to be really marketable to some Division 2 and some Division 1 programs because they're experienced. Right. I was talking to a coach the other day and this has been echoed across the board is we don't want to be young if we don't have to be. Like, we want to develop high school guys, but we don't want to start a bunch of freshmen. And I think these fifth year guys who will ultimately probably transfer after their fourth year at a school, I think those guys are going to be really marketable if they've been anywhere near productive. You know, if you're. Well, you just keep using Maris as an example.
But now if you started 175 games in Maris and were a pretty good player at that level and at that school, yeah, you might not be the most sought after transfer portal guy, but somebody's going to value the fact that you're old, you're strong, you're experienced, you've gone through four years of college baseball. And that's where I worry, not worry about, but that's where I think the transfer portal could become a little bit of a log jam with all these guys likely pursuing a fifth year somewhere else and coaches are going to leave roster spots open for those guys.
Yeah, the, the, the other thing about the portal that I think it's a little bit twisted is that coaches have to be reactionary too.
Right? Like if you, if you've got 10 high school guys coming in and you're graduating 10, you're even. But then if you have five guys going to the portal, well, you need to go get five guys just to get to your roster number. And I think that that's something that's, that's missed. When people talk about the transfer portal is that they think that it's just guys trying to stack their roster. When I think in reality, a lot of it is some of these guys would prefer not to have to use a transfer portal. But if on June 1st you've only got 30 guys on your roster, like you need to go find four guys, I think that that gets missed. Sometimes. I think people forget that that's a part of this process.
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[00:23:25] Speaker D: Yeah, I also think that there's, there's something to be said about the transfer portal that pro we probably haven't even broached on this podcast.
But you, when you bring up the, you have to be somewhat productive.
There's a lot of truth in that.
And I find myself seeing all these tweets and you know, I couldn't tell you who they are, but they pop up on my Twitter feed all the time.
If you pitch it a six and you have a two whip that doesn't include the 17 hit by pitches you have coaches look at that and it's going to be hard to like, yeah, you're older and.
[00:24:20] Speaker B: You either need to be productive or you need to be really projectable and do some things that are pretty special. Like we were talking about with a bit of art the other day. Like you can hit.275 and strike out a bunch, but if you play high level shortstop, you might be able to level up. But to your point, correct, hey, if you, if you threw 18 innings and you walked 21 guys and people hit 360 off of you just because you're 90 to 94, like, yeah, somebody's gonna take you, but what's the market? Like, what are you trying to do?
And I think that's. Where are they though? Yeah, somebody will take them. But you're not, you're probably not getting what you think you're getting just because your trackman data look sexy. Coaches are going to go to the video. There's, there's so much data available that they can sift through like, well, hey, you couldn't pitch.
[00:25:17] Speaker D: We're devolving from the five on five.
[00:25:20] Speaker B: But at some point the, the, the
[00:25:25] Speaker D: fact remains that you still have to play the game and if your stats are bearing out, whether it's offensively, defensively or on the mound that you, you're, you're really struggling to be able to do it in game, that there's not going to be a, as big a market or even a market for what you think it is, for what you think you probably.
[00:25:49] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah. And I would love, and I would love to have some conversations with some of these kids that are going in just to be like, hey, so what are you thinking?
Because maybe their thought process is spot on and they're going, hey, Like, I need to go to a different place because I just, I need a change of scenery.
I need somebody that I feel like can help me hone some of this. In which I think is a different conversation versus, hey, I hit 95.
Like I should be pitching for Arkansas.
Like, big difference.
[00:26:23] Speaker D: You have a three whip and a 15 ERA and you're, you're one nine to the plate. That, that's you. My point in all of this and you know, you still have to play the game and we've devolved from the five for five. But you know, the transfer portal is a big portion of this five for five. And I, I think with transfer portal season coming up on what next Monday is when, you know, you can officially go hunting in the, in the transfer portal RPI rip, you know, but like, it. I, I just think that it's, you know, it.
You have to. I think. I guess my point in it is, is if you're gonna, if you're gonna have a one time transfer rule, you have to legitimately really think about what your production has been at the school that you are currently at and whether or not there's a market for that out there.
Because if it's just going to be a run of the mill 250 with average defense and no juice, there's not a lot, there's not going to be a lot of market for that.
I can find a high school kid to hit 250 and play marginal defense with more upside.
[00:27:35] Speaker B: Yeah,
[00:27:38] Speaker D: like, to fly in the face of the, like, we would just want to be older, you know, but if you're gonna hit 275 and you know, field 990 at shortstop and be really good, that's a different argument. Like, you know, it's an, it's an individualized case. But I think that a lot of people look at their numbers or their, their metrics and they see these things.
I'm sick. I look at a lot of the stats on the people I see in the going in and you know, I think that it's. And I've been contacted by coaches about people, you know, whether or not I know them or we've worked with them or, you know, I know of them because I know I coached in the league or I've been out here in Rochester and whatever it is. Right.
And you know, generally the answer is no.
You know, like they look at the numbers, they look at that stuff and see how it plays. And like, you have to take that into account. And I think that you have to understand that the while, yes, there are not a lot of different. Like, there's. The differences between the levels are, Are not as.
Are not as drastic as you think.
The margin from error is bigger than what you think it is.
[00:28:53] Speaker B: Yeah, that's a good way to put it. When you go and you, you go and you look at.
It's easy for us and it's easy for coaches to see a kid go into the portal and go look at some stuff, and it's like, that kid's going to get a lot of interest.
You know, you hit three. You hit 340 with 14 pumps in Conference USA and you play a position of need. Like, yeah, that kid's gonna get.
He's gonna have some options to sift through versus, you know, you hit, you know, 210 in the American east and started 12 games, you're probably going into the portal for a different reason, and that's fine, too. But, you know, it's not hard to. To figure out who's going to get, you know, legitimate interest and who's not.
[00:29:38] Speaker D: Yeah,
[00:29:41] Speaker B: the coaches. These coaches have way. They have access to way more data than we do. Like, it's not hard for them to paint a picture of a guy who's got, you know, 100 games in college under his belt. Like, they can pretty much pinpoint, like, yeah, that guy can play for us or not.
[00:29:55] Speaker D: Yeah, it's.
I think it's. It's a lot more black and white once you're in college, right? You have, you have the data and you have the. And it goes both ways. Like, it's a lot easier to say yes. It's a lot easier to say no because you have the data once you're in college and you're playing against college guys, to say, I think this can play, or this is going to work for us, and it becomes, it becomes relatively easy, easier, I would say, you know, I don't necessarily know that everyone loves it, but, you know, it becomes a lot easier to say yes or no, which is why, back to the original point, the grad school stuff, we've. We've derailed a little bit. But the grad school stuff, if you go produce for four years, there's a large body of work for you to be able to put yourself out there into the transfer portal for a grad school one year, go get your grad degree. And here I am, you know, I have four years of, of work and data that you can go through and be like, yeah, no, I.
He's gotten better every year. And you know, strikeout numbers have gone up, walks have gone down, averages climbed every year. Power numbers have gone up every year. His defensive numbers have, you know, always been solid. And it's gotten better his junior and senior year.
That, that, that plays.
You know, you got it. You got a real a one year, like, I'm out of here. Like, okay, yeah,
[00:31:32] Speaker B: yeah. I mean, it's kind of take it full circle. Like, there's a lot of things I like about it.
I think the impacts are. I think there's some stuff that is going to happen in the next couple years before this kind of normalizes, but it sounds like it's going through, you know, so I think it's something that, you know, just to be aware of and understand kind of how this works and, you know, how it could potentially impact. I think we'll know a lot here in the next month and we'll probably revisit this and we'll get more opinions from coaches and have a better under, you know, even. Maybe even a clearer set of ideas of how we think this is all going to play out. But, yeah, it's coming.
Anything else you want to add?
[00:32:21] Speaker D: No, sir.
[00:32:22] Speaker B: All right, well, thank you for listening, everybody. Tune in next week. We will talk to you then. Thanks.
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[00:32:45] Speaker C: If you want to find out what
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