Episode Transcript
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[00:01:10] Speaker B: welcome to this week's edition of the Dugout Dish podcast. I am Andy Kirikidis, joined by my Wonderful Co host, Mr. Keith Glasser. How we doing? Great.
[00:01:18] Speaker A: How are you?
[00:01:20] Speaker B: We got our Guy Back on, Mr. Jonathan Grass.
We, we, we like to bring him on when we dive into some college baseball stuff. I would say that we're kind of at the three quarter poll, so a good time to, to bring our guy on. What's going on man?
[00:01:38] Speaker A: Guys, that's a great reference for Kentucky Derby week. Andrew.
[00:01:43] Speaker B: Oh, thank you. Appreciate it.
[00:01:45] Speaker C: Good call right there.
[00:01:46] Speaker B: I like that Kentucky Derby week was run to OTB before you go to the field for BP day on Sundays. Don't, don't tell the mayor's coaching staff that that was a common occurrence. But yeah, the, the OTB off of, oh gee, say off of 44 in 44.
Some, some interesting folks in there.
[00:02:12] Speaker A: So they're still interesting folks that every OTB in the world.
[00:02:16] Speaker B: But we are at the, we're at the three quarter poll and it's, it's getting, it's getting pretty hot and heavy in the, the college baseball ranks, I think.
Couple couple things that we want to talk about here. First one I'm going to chuck out to the squad here is the SEC is pure freaking chaos right now and it kind of got turned on its head a little bit with, with LSU struggling right now and you know, maybe some teams at the bottom that have actually probably outperformed a little bit to a certain extent recently with South Carolina and Missouri kind of mixing it up a little bit and making it interesting. But the, the middle of the SEC right now is a complete freaking log jam.
And let's take a couple minutes to try to unpack that. What do you got on. On this particular. This particular topic, Mr. Grasse?
[00:03:11] Speaker C: I mean. Yeah, yeah, I think you. You hit the nail on top of the head right there, right, like the log jam in the middle.
Yeah, I think that the start, I think you. You look at, right, there's three teams that probably can win it out, right, the regular season, you know, Texas, Georgia, and Texas A and M.
Texas A and M is, I think, maybe the biggest surprise, obviously, LSU and the negative side of the sec. But I think in terms of, like, if you looked at, you know, preseason, what were kind of people talking about?
Yeah, again, everybody knew they were good. I think some. Some publications had them around 25, like, towards the back end of that 20 range ranked, you know, preseason. But, you know, I mean, they got a shot here. You know, they. They kind of take care of business these last nine, you know, to win the outright, you know, regular season, which I think would be a huge accomplishment for them.
You know, Texas kind of doing what we thought. You know, I think they're preseason two or three, and Georgia is another surprise. I mean, I know me and another guest on this show or one of the hosts, I guess, probably a better way to put it on the show, called out Georgia a couple weeks ago, and they've continued to kind of. Kind of steamroll their way through, you know, SEC play. A little bit of a hiccup two weeks ago, but they've done a phenomenal job. And then, you know, on the other side of it, right, you have three teams that are probably eliminated. You know, I mean, LSU maybe with a run in them, but I don't. I just don't see, you know, them in, you know, their season will come to an end in Hoover, obviously. South Carolina, Missouri, same thing. But, you know, like you said, you know, Andy, like, these aren't a cupcake. There's. There are no cupcakes. Like, this isn't, you know, Missouri last year was. Was a real cupcake. And South Carolina, I think they had five wins in the SEC last year. So, like, that was basically a cupcake. If you really look at it.
You're not. There's no cupcakes. If you take any of these teams, you know, lightly. I mean, ask Kentucky. I mean, I'm sure. I'm sure Coach Mingyon would tell you, you know, taking South Carolina and Missouri lightly will. Will not be good for you.
You know, but I really like, outside of those Six, right. You have everybody else kind of in the middle.
I think when it's all said and done, I think Kentucky is the other one that could be left out.
If you're going to say 14 teams get in.
You know, Vandy is the, is the one and I'm sure we'll get to it at some point here, but I think Vandy is the other one that is very intriguing because of the problematic RPI right now. They have some, you know, ways that they can definitely improve that, you know, quite a bit here, especially with, you know, going to Georgia this weekend.
But really, I mean, everything else, right, you're looking at, you know, you're, you're probably looking at a 14 bid league.
If you say four teams don't get in, you know, maybe 15 teams, which is pretty wild.
Again, you know, they haven't left. I mean, they've kind of set a precedent here. If you get to 14 sec wins, you're in, you know, the regular season. They've kind of set that as a precedent.
Thing was, three years ago, Kentucky got left out of 13, but I mean, you get to 14, you're in, you know, and 15, you're in. It's, it's a slam dunk. So it'll be interesting with it. With the amount of teams that are kind of logged in there, you know, 10 and 11 and 11 and 10, you know, how many of them get to 15 or 14. And again, you know, outside of Vandy, I think they're the only ones with a problematic RPI right now, the way it currently sits to be able to get themselves in. So you're looking at again a 14 bid league with a lot in the middle. That what the history has told us is if the sec, when you're in the sec, you get in, you could get to Omaha and you could, you know, make a real run at it. So even if you don't finish, you know, with a great SEC record, you know, in terms of 20, 18 or 18 plus wins, still make a run out. I mean, we saw it with Florida, you know, a couple of years ago, Ole Miss was a three seed that, you know, won the national championship. So, you know, just getting yourself in that in, in the turn in the NCAA tournament, you know, if you're an SEC team, that's all it really takes to, you know, to give yourself a chance. So I'm interested to see how it gets and how many, you know, how many of them get to, you know, that, that 14 or 15 number. But I think it's going to be quite a bit. And I think we're gonna, I think we're end up with 14. If I were to guess right now,
[00:07:29] Speaker B: you got nine teams who are 8 and 10, 9 and 9 or 10 and 8. And I'm gonna kick it over to Keith here because Keith, you had brought this up.
The Vanderbilt is kind of the microcosm of that middle of the pack with the SEC right now where they have a path.
But it's not an easy one.
[00:07:50] Speaker A: No, it's not. And I, I think it's true for pretty much every team that's in the middle of it. Right?
You have Florida, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Gloma, Alabama, Vandy and Tennessee all sitting at 11 and 10 or 10 and 11 and all of them have a path forward.
And it could to be rolling into Hoover and possibly into a regional and feeling really good about yourselves, or it could go south and you're left out of the tournament.
But I thought Vandy, I mean, I did a little bit. I didn't do every team, but like Vandy has, they're at Alabama, who's also 10 and 11 this weekend.
Then they're at Mizzou and then home against South Carolina.
And obviously you can't take South Carolina lightly. You know, Mizzou has been more competitive this year than they have been in recent years. So, you know, this weekend is obviously huge for, excuse me, the Commodores going to Tuscaloosa and playing Alabama, you know, but if you win those three series, even if you, you know, even if you don't sweep Anyone, you're at 16 wins before you get to Hoover. You go rattle off a couple wins there, like yours, your rpi, like now your problematic RPI is going to climb. Like right now they're 65th. You know, you're behind LSU, who's, you know, in second to last place in the SEC. So like that 65 number in the RPI is. It's tough. You know, it's likely going to climb. If you win the series against Alabama, it's going to climb, right, like you win at Mizzou, it's going to climb. Not as much, but it'll climb. Then you got South Carolina at home, and then you're going to go neutral site and you rattle off a couple wins. Like your, your RPI is going to clean itself up, which, and we've talked about this before, it's why they do it the way that they do. It's why the SEC does it. It's why the SEC does it. They all go play each Other, at the end of year, you're just climbing your RPI with the wins that you have, you know, but it. It also could go south if you lose two of those series, you know, you're probably on the outside looking in because your RPI is going to fall, and you're going to probably have to go into Hoover and win the whole thing to legitimately guarantee yourself a chance to go play in the postseason this year. And I think that's the case for a lot of the schools that are in the middle of the pack there.
I mean, the only ones that are probably clear would be, I mean, Florida, who, you know, again, is just an odd team to watch. Like, they're really good, but they have some losses that are head scratchers.
I mean, Ole Miss got beat up the other night by Mississippi State, albeit it was a midweek game where I think the. The camera crew was a little off in how they were going about filming that ball match.
And probably, you know, I think Arkansas, Oklahoma, I think are probably safe, but it could go south on them, too, you know, depending on what they've done, because they've. They've found themselves in some tight games and lost some games that they. They probably shouldn't. I mean, but Alabama is also this. You know, they're six in the rpi, so if Andy can go in there and win, you're going to climb some serious points in the RPI and take care of what it is that you're, you know, the one thing that is, you know, really holding you back from. From us saying, like, yeah, no, they're.
[00:11:09] Speaker C: They're.
[00:11:09] Speaker A: They're going to be in. If they can, you know, win two of these series, like, they're going to be okay.
But I think it's just.
[00:11:16] Speaker C: Yeah, here's what I got for you, and I was just thinking about this. So what if they get swept? And I know I said Georgia. I mean, Alabama with Dandy, but what if Dandy gets swept at Alabama this weekend, wins two at Mizzou, wins two at home against South Carolina, and is one and done in Hoover.
[00:11:38] Speaker B: You're. You're sitting there.
[00:11:40] Speaker C: 14 SEC wins, though, right?
[00:11:43] Speaker B: And historically, that gets you in. But usually with 14 SEC wins, that RPI is going to be higher. And we were talking about this, like, no matter what happens at Tuscaloosa, they could get swept by Alabama, and they're going to move up into.
Into the mid-50s. Like, we saw it happen with wake up in Georgia tech, where wakes 20, 20 or 21 in the RPI, right? Now and they actually went up after getting swept by Georgia Tech because they were road quad one games. Right. So they're going to go up with Bama. But if you get swept at Bama, I don't know if 14 is good enough with that RPI.
Historically 14 gets you in and you're absolutely right, Jonathan. But like if you can't get inside the top 40 in the RPI, I think there's enough schools because. And we'll probably get to this later but like Conference USA looks like they're getting three no matter what happens in that tournament. Right. Missouri State, Liberty and Jackson and Jacksonville State. They look like they're locks. The American Conference has gotten super interesting because ECU has been playing really well and UAB is inside the top 40 and UTSA is right on the edge of it. And I think that when you start to factor in some of the other at large bids, I think if you're Vanderbilt you need to, you probably need to be inside the top 40 at 14 wins. And in order to do that, I think he got at least get one against Bama this weekend. Yeah.
[00:13:25] Speaker A: I think it also matters what the other two like.
I mean, shoot. Ole Miss still has their at Arkansas, home against A and M at.
At. At Tusk in Tuscaloosa.
Like Arkansas is at Ole Miss. They're home against Ole Miss, home against Oklahoma, at Kentucky. They might have. You know, I'm not going to call it the easiest path, but it's a tad bit easier. I mean Tennessee still has their at Kentucky, home against Texas at Oklahoma.
[00:13:53] Speaker C: Call them what it is. I mean Vanderbilt has the easiest, easiest path in this thing. I know that. I know the RPI is problematic but they have South Carolina and Missouri. Like if you can't. My thing is, is like where I just think it gets interesting is if they don't get any this weekend now you get one this weekend and you get. And you get two winter in. It's, it's 15. You're. It's. We're not even, we're not even discussing it.
[00:14:14] Speaker A: No, but it's interesting. I think they're the one that has the like the cleanest path with where they're currently sitting, RPI wise and conference schedule wise to get in like at the end of the day the conference is an absolute bear to go through. Like all of those teams jammed in the middle. Like you, you have to win at least one game every weekend from here. Like you cannot get swept from here on out.
[00:14:39] Speaker B: I mean just you, you, you nailed it with Ole Miss like they got at Arkansas home versus A and M at Alabama.
The. The. The janky part about that is that they're at 11 wins right now.
Right. They're 11 and 10. If they win three games, they're probably still going to be inside the top 25 in the RPI. And there's no questions asked. Just because of how difficult that schedule is. Where just playing that schedule, even if you lose, like, losing at Arkansas doesn't really hurt you.
No, because of where they sit in the rpi and it's a quad one game. That's the one thing Vanderbilt doesn't have going for him is they have two series that don't move the needle.
Even if you win as much as some of these other schools have on their schedule, where if they lose, like, you know, Alabama's.
They're 6, they're 10 and 11. They're. They're below.500 in the SEC right now, and they're the sixth RPI.
If you use RPI as a really good proxy for getting in, they're probably going to host. If they finish above.500 in the SEC, Bama probably hosts.
[00:15:53] Speaker A: Yeah, but one.
[00:15:57] Speaker C: That's the one that's. And I know we want to get some more stuff here, so I apologize. But the one that's interesting to look at is George's rpi.
If you look at, like, national seeds. Right.
[00:16:10] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:16:11] Speaker C: Like, if they win the whole thing now. Right now. Right. Again, like, we have three weeks to go, plus you have Uber. They're going to make some noise there.
[00:16:17] Speaker A: Whatever.
[00:16:18] Speaker C: Like. But, like, if you look at them, you're telling me that, let's say they win it outright the regular season, you're going to not have that.
That winner as a national. See, like, come on.
[00:16:30] Speaker A: Like, especially because Georgia wraps up with home against Missouri, home against lsu at Auburn.
[00:16:38] Speaker B: Yeah, I mean, I think whoever wins the SEC will.
I don't think, regardless. Regardless of the rpi. Like, I think you kind of got to throw the RPI out the window. But it is interesting. Like, you have both ends of the spectrum here, where, you know, you have some teams that are super high in the RPI and you know they're probably safe. And then you got Vanderbilt kind of chasing with by far the lowest RPI of a team that has a legitimate path to 14 wins, which, as we said, is kind of the cutoff. If you get to 14, you're usually pretty good.
[00:17:11] Speaker A: But,
[00:17:13] Speaker B: I mean, it's just. It's just a Bear.
Like, it's just a Bear. And Then to try to parlay into the other conversation around another conference where they're kind of eating each other up is the freaking ACC. Like the middle of the ACC might be more of a log jam than the SEC. Right now you basically got three teams at the top of the ACC and then it's a complete cluster for 10 teams where you've got somebody like Wake forest, who's sitting 20 in the RPI.
But if you really start to break down where they're at, they're 11 and 13. ACC, you usually need to get to 15 regular season wins, right?
You need to get to at least 15 with the tournament. But the tournament setup's different this year, so only the lower seated teams are going to get a chance to play these extra games, which is beneficial for them.
But wake Forest is 5 and 14 in quad one games.
If they go down the RPI a little bit here and they can't get to 15 wins, which I think they should, right? You look at their schedule and I'd like to think that they will, but they got Louisville, who's been struggling, and they've got Duke. Like they have to win these next two series to get to 15.
If, if you don't play good one of those weekends or you play at home against Western Carolina, who actually doesn't hurt them too bad even if they lose because it's a 55 RPI. But they're in an interesting spot for me because you go and you only win one against Louisville, you kind of have to sweep Duke and then you're still sitting there with a quad one resume that is the worst quad one resume of anybody in the top 50.
And I don't know what the conversations are behind closed doors here, but they're one that sticks out to me, is kind of funky in the ACC right now. Like Virginia's been on a slide.
What direction, like, what version of them are we going to see here the next couple of weeks?
The ACC for me is really funky. Miami's got a ton of injuries they're trying to battle through. They look like they're good, but they just lost maybe the best third baseman in the country for the rest of the year.
[00:19:32] Speaker A: It's.
[00:19:32] Speaker B: It's wild.
You know, North Carolina and Georgia Tech and BC have seemingly kind of separated themselves from everybody else.
But there's. I think there's a lot of work to be done and I think it's going to be really hard for the ACC to have four hosts, which is somewhat normal for them.
But right now I think they get two.
And they got to hope that BC is able to hold serve to get them that third host site
[00:20:03] Speaker C: will.
[00:20:04] Speaker A: They're on mute.
Oh, I'm not on there.
[00:20:08] Speaker B: Yeah,
[00:20:11] Speaker A: I, I don't think you're wrong. I, I think that, I mean, I, I said this to you the other day. I don't know if I said it's you, Jonathan. Like, I think.
I do think the committee likes having northern teams host. I think they want to have a northern team host, and I think BC can handle being a host if they hold serve.
But I, I think the ACC this year more than most has cannibalized itself where, you know, there's no one in that aside from UNC and North Carolina. Georgia Tech, I mean, Boston College, again, they've done a phenomenal job in that program with where they're at right now. I don't think anyone saw this coming. I think we thought they were going to be better than what they were last year. But not four games clear in third place. And what is it? A game and a half behind North Carolina. Is that what it is? Jonathan? We talked about it earlier.
[00:21:02] Speaker C: Game and a half.
[00:21:03] Speaker A: Game and a half behind North Carolina for second.
Like, you know, and they still have to play Georgia Tech. And, you know, I, I think if Boston College finishes in third clear of everyone else and, and does what they're capable of doing in Hoover, I, I don't know if they're going to win it this year, but if they go deep into it, like, I think BC becomes a lock to be a host.
But it's. They've cannibalized themselves this year. Not, you know, I just think, I think everyone this year, for the most part, this year in the acc.
And don't get it twisted when I say this, it is a very good baseball league. They're very good teams. I think they're all kind of the same, except for the three that have kind of separated themselves at the top.
Does that make sense?
[00:21:51] Speaker B: Yeah, there's a ton of parity in that middle. I think that's what it is. And it's like.
[00:21:56] Speaker A: It's kind of like the SC you have. I mean, you have a bunch of teams from. I mean, between Virginia tech, you have 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 teams that are between 12 and 9 and 11 and 13.
So, like, they're just even Steven.
[00:22:17] Speaker B: That's BC the next two conference weekends for BC or give them a chance.
The sick. It's six quad one games.
And if they can find.
If they can find three wins in those six games. I think it's going to be really hard for the committee to not have them host because I think that'll probably get them inside the top 20.
And I think they want to have. I think you want to have the ACC host three, but who knows? We're going to find out.
[00:22:56] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean, but I guess part of it too is like, in my opinion. Right. If. I mean, we're just going to call this what it is. If they get three in that stretch, not only does the committee want them to host, they deserve to host. Like, I don't even think. I don't even think we're like, even in discussion. If they get one in Raleigh, we're not even. There's. There shouldn't even be a conversation that's just on. Yes. Like, just get the stuff ready up in Chestnut Hill and get this thing rolling. Like that's a host. No doubt. They deserve it.
[00:23:28] Speaker B: Yeah. It's gonna be really interesting to see what plays out there.
The Big Ten is turned into an interesting conference in some ways. Right? Like the non traditional Big Ten schools are just dominating that conference.
UCLA, obviously, USC sitting 10 in the RPI, although they're an interesting resume to look at.
And I think ultimately the end of the year, whoever wins the USC Oregon series to close out conference, I think will have a chance to host.
And then you got Nebraska, who like, quietly is the 11th RPI team in the country. They're 34 and 11, nine and seven, quad one.
They haven't lost to anybody at the bottom end of the scale, which I think says a lot about teams. They're like, they consistently show up and play good baseball.
Right now, barring a major setback, like, I think the Big Ten probably gets three teams.
USC for me is interesting, though, because they're zero and eight against Quad one teams. And I think if you're splitting hairs, and I think this is. USC is a team that could potentially help BC. When you look at the resumes, they're like BCs. RPI probably won't catch up to USC's, but you start looking at the resume across the board and you look at USC and you go, you haven't beaten anybody who's in the upper echelon.
I think that's telling. When you're talking about splitting hairs about who's going to host, especially if they're on the cusp of it and you just. You don't have a quality win.
You don't. You don't have that really high quality win. Like when you look at a lot of these other teams like Kansas, they're 12 and three against quad one. Kansas is going to host.
You look at that resume like they're going to host.
But even some of these other teams that are kind of in the mix, they have success against really high level teams and USC just hasn't done that yet.
They're an interesting case for me.
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I think you're right. I mean we had, I mean we talked about Nebraska the last time we did this. At the halfway point they were, they were really starting to come alive and beat the bag off of people. And they've, they've continued to do it. I mean 17 and 4 in that conference this year. I mean no one's going to touch UCLA. They're 21 and oh, on conference. I mean that they're a juggernaut of a baseball team right now.
I don't, I'll be honest with you, Andy. I don't even know if, I mean, I guess if you're, you're splitting hairs between USC and Oregon, that's their third. But I mean, I, I don't know. Like, I think you make a compelling case being zero and eight against quad one opponents. Like, yes, you have a, a very good RPI or top 10 10th, you're owing eight against quad one opponents. There's, there's no one else in the top.
I, I don't even know. Like I'm all the way down into the 50s. Everyone has at least one quad win. 51 is the first quad one win.
[00:27:43] Speaker C: But you gotta remember, Keith, if they get, if they get two from USC or I'm trying to get two for more again.
Yeah, it's gonna do there. What I mean, I think too, like, if you're the Big Ten, right, like as a league, you're probably hoping Oregon takes two or three there because it's just an easy. Then like Oregon's our host, our third host. I, I think you're gonna, you'll be, you're gonna have some issues if USC wins that series. I think it's actually it, it puts the Big Ten in a tough spot because again, like, you know, you were gonna have two quad one wins, like, that's it. You got smoked by UCLA basically.
You know, I think two of the three times they lost a tight one, I think on Friday night. But like, that becomes really problematic then for them in terms of like, when you're, you're going to be like, see 16, 15, maybe, like you're splitting hairs now. Now you're looking at, you know, some of those Conference usa, you know, resumes you're going to be looking at, like it gets dicey there. Like, you know, you're in a spot you don't really want to be in as a league. If you do want the three hosts, obviously, which is what they want, I think that probably deep down, if you're, if you're in the Big Ten and you're saying, hey, we want three hosts.
[00:28:53] Speaker A: We.
[00:28:53] Speaker C: You want Oregon to take care of business against usc, you know, here next weekend.
[00:28:59] Speaker B: Yeah, I agree. I think that's a cleaner path for the Big Ten.
Let's see, Oregon's at ucla, so they're going to go up. If you, if you can find a way to win one at UCLA, you're going inside the top 20. And then you win the series at USC. I don't think it even becomes a question at that point. No, Oregon becomes that, that third team.
I mean, kind of just keep rolling with the year. Like you talk about like Conference USA and some non, you know, non Power4Schools that can host.
I think Coastal's a host.
I, I don't at this point what they've done this year. Like, I, I think it's, I think Kevin Scholast will win the National Coach of the Year. When you think about what they've gone through with the injuries and they just continue to win baseball games and it doesn't matter who they play. They just steamrolled North Carolina and they just, they're 17 and four in the Sun Belt, which is at least a two bid league, potentially three, probably two.
But I think they'll end up hosting again.
[00:30:12] Speaker C: I think they're a natural seed, man. Like I, I don't even think that's even a question. Right. Like I, I mean I, I have a hard time believing with their resume unless they do something crazy in these next nine and, and really, you know, don't play well in the Sunbelt Tournament, which doesn't appear like that could happen. I mean, knock on wood for them. But I think that's a national, that's a national seed resume. I think, I don't even think it's a question in my opinion. I know there'll be some others that, you know, potentially could get in there, but I mean, I think that's a top eight. That's a top eight resume.
I mean there. How many get there? What, four games up in the Sun Belt.
[00:30:50] Speaker B: Yeah, they're rolling people.
I mean, yeah, they're smoking people midweek.
[00:30:56] Speaker C: Like Crush week. When they played them obviously last night, you know, what they did to unc, like that's a matt and I don't know that's a national seed. To me that, that's what a national seed looks like.
[00:31:07] Speaker B: Can Conference usa.
So the highest RPI school in Conference USA right now is Missouri State.
The troubling thing though with. They would have on paper looks to be the best chance to get into the host conversation and they have the facility to do it. Right.
The problem is they're four games behind Jacksonville State in Conference USA standings.
So that might immediately eliminate them from being a non power. They're probably the best bet for non power 4 to end up as a host. ECU is 30.
I don't think their resume is strong enough to actually get into the host conversation. So like you might not see a non power 4 be one of the top 16 teams. I think that that would be a fair.
[00:31:56] Speaker C: Coastal.
[00:31:58] Speaker B: Coastal. Excuse me. Sorry. They'd be, they'd be the one, the one team that would fall outside of the Power 4. Potentially Southern Miss. But Southern Miss. RPI puts them in the conversation. But like you just said, they're. They're four games behind Coastal in, in the standings right now. So it'll be interesting to see if, if Southern Miss can sneak in. Maybe they're the other team.
[00:32:25] Speaker C: But, but again, I think with the Missouri State thing, same thing like, you know, you're that many games out of first and in a non powerful league. I just think that that becomes a little bit of an issue with, with the, the whole thing.
[00:32:37] Speaker B: Yeah, it's going to be tough for it to give A host seed to a non power four school that didn't win their conference.
[00:32:44] Speaker A: Yeah, well, there's only going to be. The other thing to keep in mind is I think there's only going to be seven. Seven national seeds outside of Oregon State.
Right.
[00:32:58] Speaker B: Oregon State's an interesting one too, because that schedule, just them being independent. I mean, they've only played four Quad one games.
[00:33:09] Speaker C: UCLA is probably a better way to put it. Right. Like, I mean, UCLA is unanimous.
[00:33:15] Speaker B: Okay. Fair.
[00:33:17] Speaker C: Right.
[00:33:19] Speaker A: UCLA is a unit and probably Georgia Tech.
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[00:34:07] Speaker C: if we're
[00:34:08] Speaker B: going, we're going national seeds right now.
I think ucla, Tech, Texas, Texas A and M and North Carolina are probably the five cleanest ones. And I would say Coastal would be the 6 for the reasons that you said, Jonathan. Those would be the six that I would. If you were to say right now six of the eight, those would be the six that I would feel comfortable saying. I think they're national seats.
[00:34:36] Speaker C: And then I would go one further and I would say Georgia, if they win it outright the regular season, I think there's your. There's seven right there. Now you have seven. And now I think the keys point Oregon State. But you know that that's.
But I actually think the.
The eighth national seed. Let's just say. We'll just say those seven. We'll just say. Let's just say Georgia wins it outright. You put them in the eighth national seed. Like, it's kind of tricky, to be honest with you.
[00:35:07] Speaker B: Oregon State has no wiggle room for the rest of the season.
So them staying at 8 is going to be tough just with their schedule. Yeah. Playing at home against Cal State Northridge, who's 203, that's a lose. Lose.
[00:35:21] Speaker C: Yep.
[00:35:21] Speaker B: Right. Like they have to win all three of those games just to not go down. And they'll probably drop because of it. Even if they win, you go to Portland, which isn't terrible. It's a quad two game.
You go to Long Beach State, which is a complete wash. So you're going on the road to play a quad four game. You have to win them all. And then you play at home against Air Force, which is another game that just doesn't move. Like, they almost can't. If they want to be a national seed, they almost have to win out, which on paper they should. Like, none of those teams should beat Oregon State. But, you know, you're looking at nine. They've got 11 more games left.
If they go nine and two, they're not. They're not a national seed. And I actually think that they could be out of a potential host spot if they go 9 and 2. I think they have to win because those.
[00:36:12] Speaker C: The loss is going to be so bad for the rpi, like you said. Yeah. I mean, like, you're almost better getting rained out. Like. Like them playing Northridge at home. Like, you're better off getting rained out, not even playing them. Like, just cancel the whole weekend.
[00:36:27] Speaker B: Yeah.
The way the formula works, that is 100 accurate. Not playing those games would be better than playing them, which is crazy.
[00:36:38] Speaker C: No, I know, but, like, you know, I'm not. Listen, I'm not. I'm gonna make a disclaimer here. I am not for anybody canceling games because of the quote unquote weather. But in the world we live, right? Like, yeah, they do it in the SEC, they do it in the ACC. I mean, OR stages. Yeah. Now take the check and you're all set. We're good. Don't even come up.
[00:37:02] Speaker B: We're just gonna enter squad. Yeah.
Now that.
And then I think the funny thing is, I think when you get there, because of Dax Whitney, Oregon State is super dangerous until they get to Omaha. If they can get to Omaha, because there might not be a better arm in the whole country. So, you know, for pretty much every Friday, you got to do that. The other team is not going to be able to put a guy out there that's better than him.
[00:37:34] Speaker C: Yeah. And I think the one thing with them too. Right. That becomes really tricky is like, that's a.
If. If you're not.
[00:37:43] Speaker B: If.
[00:37:44] Speaker C: Let's just say they're a host. Right. I won't even call it a national. So it's just one of the. One of the 16. I'm sorry. Right.
You're not gonna. They're not gonna have to use DAC again on game one, most likely. So now if you're a two seed in that regional, that's a tough, tough, tough regional. And you go one step Further right. And let's say they don't stay in the top 16. They're non host. They're a disaster as a two seed because you have the best arm maybe in the country going.
[00:38:12] Speaker B: Yeah, that's where the, that's where the tournament gets really fun when you start looking at like the potential matchups. Because it's one thing to get there, it's another thing to be well built to win in that environment and like the way that the tournament works. And Darren, it. When you have a horse like that, like it's, you know, Coastal is the same way. Especially if Fluky is able to get back to full strength, like that's another one like good luck, man.
Like if that dude's got his best stuff, you know, there's a lot of good arms in college baseball right now, but like there's a couple dudes that they take them out and it's like we might only have to score two.
They're that good.
Even the best teams in the sec, Georgia and Texas and they don't have that guy. They have a lot of guys that are good, but they don't have a dude like Fluke. They don't have a dude like Dax Whitney.
Not many schools can say it.
[00:39:06] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:39:11] Speaker B: All right.
I had one other item on the docket which was who do we think's going to end up being the hosts?
No, sorry, last one here. I got to bring this up because it's a west coast thing. And Jonathan, I know you love this.
The big west has been wildly disappointing this year and it makes me a little bit sad because it was one of my predictions at the beginning of the year that that was going to be a three bed league and potentially a four bid league. And right now Santa Barbara is the only team who has a chance to be an at large. And. And they're slipping a little bit right now. Like they're down to 38 in the RPI and if you don't win your. If you're going to get an at large, ideally you. You kind of want to be in the top 40. You start getting into the 40s and it gets a little bit slippery.
And that conference for me has been one of the biggest disappointments this year because Paulie and Irvine and Hawaii just have not been as good as I think a lot of people, including myself, anticipated.
Does that make you feel good, Jonathan? West coast bias
[00:40:25] Speaker C: for people that listen to this show quite a bit now, my opinions on some of the people that live west of the Mississippi and their hatred towards Us people that live east of the Mississippi and the RPI is their main go to thing that they don't like about us. So I'll just stick right there.
[00:40:50] Speaker B: Well, you think about it.
Santa Barbara went to Southern Miss and it might be the reason they get an at large because they decided to fly and go play at Southern Miss this year.
If you take that series out of their resume. Santa Barbara is not an at large team and that's crazy to think that a three game set that they.
[00:41:12] Speaker C: Yeah, but I mean, but, but if you have to, you have to compare to what, what would they have done if not. Right. And like you said, so. Okay, so you have, you know, an Ivy League team or a Patriot League team or a team from the Northeast Conference or the Mac or you know, a mid major, a lower tier mid major conference come out to you and you play them at home like you're saying, right. It's the difference between playing and grabbing three wins at, you know, 260 or 250 RPM as opposed to getting. They got one or two. It's other miss one. Right.
They got one on the road at in quad one. It's a big deal.
[00:41:53] Speaker B: Yeah.
Yeah, it is.
All right, quick round robin.
Give me your eight national seats. I'm gonna put you on the spot. Coach Glass, who are your eight national seeds right now? If you're, if you're, if you're a betting man.
[00:42:20] Speaker A: Sorry, I'm, I'm experiencing some technical difficulties here. So I apologize here. I'm lagging way behind and I couldn't get to the mute button.
Ucla, Georgia Tech, Texas, Texas A and M I think are Locke's, North Carolina, 5.
I do think that Coastal is likely a national seed, so I'll put them at six.
I'm going to put someone in there that. We'll see what happens over the last, the next couple of weeks. But I think Kansas is positioned themselves to be a national seed.
And my last one, I think Nebraska could be a national seed.
So that's going to be my 8. UCLA, Georgia Tech, Texas A and M. Texas. Then Texas A and M, North Carolina, Coastal, Kansas, Nebraska, Kansas, Nebraska act.
There you go. Those are my eight for right now. I'll probably be wrong, but that's fine. Throwing it out there.
[00:43:27] Speaker B: I like it. I like it. I like the Kansas pick. It's a good pick. Grasse, what do you got?
[00:43:32] Speaker A: They're, they're playing really well.
[00:43:35] Speaker B: They're.
[00:43:35] Speaker A: They, they're, they're not afraid to go on the road. They, they've you know, I just think that they're. They're not afraid to score runs.
I watched them. I actually watched a decent amount of the Kansas. Kansas State series this past weekend. And it was. They play a really good brand of baseball, you know, so I wouldn't. I mean, they're. They have the RPI. They're at 13.
You know, it'll be interesting to see kind of what happens on the back half of the next two or three weeks as we get into conference play. But, you know, I think if. I think if you win the Big 12, which is. Is probably going to be likely for them.
Yeah, I think that you're probably going to be a national seed there.
[00:44:16] Speaker B: Crosshair. What do you got?
[00:44:17] Speaker C: Yeah, I have the same six, those first six. So ucla, Georgia Tech, Texas, Texas A and M, North Carolina, Coastal. Those are my six. Same as Keith. I actually also have Kansas. He stole my thunder there by going first.
I had Kansas, too. I think, like he said, the resume, Big 12 outright, like, what they've done is incredible. I mean, if you said three years ago, hey, you're going to be a national seat at Kansas when they hired Coach Fitzgerald, like, I think that administration would take that a million times over again. So we'll go there and I'm going to go with my. My 8 is going to be Georgia, because I think even if they don't win it, I think they're going to be right there, like, whether it's a game out or a half a game out from an SEC championship. And I. And I know the RPI is a little bit problematic, but I think.
I just think it's going to be really tough to keep them out if they're like one game behind, even if they don't win it.
And again, if they make a little bit of a run in Hoover, their RPI is not going to have any issue with it. So I. They're going to be my eighth.
[00:45:29] Speaker B: I'm on the fence here a little bit.
I like the six that we talked about. I do think that Coastal should and. And should be kind of that last host.
I'm gonna flip flop. I really like the Kansas team. I'm. I'm rooting for them to be a national seat. I think they're a lot to be owes, but I'm rooting for them to be a national seed. I think they've earned the right to do it. I'm going to gamble a little bit here. I think Mississippi State is going to get hot and they're going to end up being I could actually end up seeing them go as high as, like the number four because of the way their schedule is now. They've got a juggernaut schedule coming up, but if they can win two of their next three series at Texas versus Auburn and at Texas A and M, which is a big ask, but I think they're going to win two of those next three series. And if they do that, I think they're, I think they're a national seed. I don't, I don't think, I don't even think it'll be a question at that point because you're looking at, you know, 17 or 18 sec wins with massive RPI boosts. They're already at 12. Like, I think they easily get inside that top 10 with that resume. So Mississippi State would be my, would be my eighth right now.
Who's your one surprise host?
Last question.
[00:46:48] Speaker A: Go ahead, Jonathan. I stole your thunder the last time you did.
[00:46:53] Speaker C: Still my thunder right there with that Kansas pick. I love that pick. I was all over that from like 9am this morning.
It's interesting. I don't know. Like, I don't, like, I think, I think if you look at it like I don't have a surprise host because I don't, I don't know if anyone's gonna really, you know, jump into that category. I know we had talked about it, you know, last year, Oregon was like 51, I think, you know, three weeks out of the regular season and I ended up hosting. And, you know, there was some, some stuff on social media this week where you saw like, hey, is there anybody in that spot? I think Kansas State, and it actually might have been last Monday, but Kansas State, I think was in that 51 spot with the RPI.
I think my biggest surprise, I think if you just look at it from, you know, like in the beginning of the year, like, hey, who are you most surprised is going to be, you know, in that, in that host range, I think, you know, obviously Kansas going to be a national seat would be my one. And then the second one, I think is Nebraska.
You know, I, I think they're going to host. You know, they're pretty slam dunk in terms of, like, being able to host at this point. But I think if you just look at, you know, kind of where a lot of people had them, I don't know how many people really thought they were going to do what they're doing right now. So I would say that's my one, you know, surprise. I mean, I guess the other one right. Would be Boston College. You know, like just to kind of jump back on that train a little bit here. Like, you know, we all said we thought they were going to be much better that I think they're even going to have been, you know, on April 29th to be talking about them hosting a no shot, like no chance. So what they've done is, you know, insane.
And I do think they're going to host because number because not only will the committee want a northern team the host, but because they deserve it. So those are my two, I guess, kind of surprises.
[00:48:52] Speaker B: The one team that I'm going to highlight. And you highlighted them previously. Not, not in today's podcast, but a previous podcast. But I think UCF beats Arizona State this week. I think they come in second in the Big 12 and I think if they do what they are capable of doing here to close out the season, I think they could get themselves into a host spot, which I think would be really cool.
[00:49:13] Speaker C: So they're getting healthy too. They're getting healthy on the mound because they had that injury on the mountain at West Virginia.
They're interesting because, you know, I, I think I brought them up at the mid, the mid season. They're a tough out. Right. Like they're really tough out with that rotation.
[00:49:29] Speaker B: Yeah. And they got, they got a chance to do it like it's in front of them. If you go and you win the series against Arizona State and they don't have any really bad conference games like you're at Baylor who's 61 in the RPI, like that's, that's going to turn out to be a good series win. If you can win that and then you close out with Kansas State. I think if they do their job or do what they're capable of doing, I think you're looking at them being a clear cut number two with a resume that's commensurate with being a host. And I think you could see them sneak into it too. But I'd love to see Boston College get it.
I think coastal is 100 earn the right at this point to be the one of the national seats. So any other closing thoughts from you?
[00:50:11] Speaker A: Hold on. I didn't go.
[00:50:13] Speaker B: I thought you picked. Oh, sorry.
[00:50:17] Speaker A: First on surprises.
I, I'm gonna.
B.C. was one of mine. So you got me back there.
I thought UCF was a, was a, a very good one. So I got, I got got very quickly with you two going first.
I think the two that I'm going to just throw this out there because my two Got taken.
I don't know if it'd be a surprise. I think Alabama could be a host if they do what they're. What they could do over the course of the last three weekends. I mean, with that rpi and if you go in and win three series to close out the year and make some noise in Hoover, I like, I think it's a lock to be a host and I think Ole Miss could be too, which, you know, goes against some of the things, but they have a good RPI. Same thing. They're 11 and 10. If they go and run the table and win a couple series to close out this year and do the same thing in Hoover and make some noise, I think they could. You could make a case for them being a. Not a national, but. But being a host, too. So on the fly, being a professional here, to just kind of stabs in the dark of surprises that I think could.
Could make some noise to close out the year. And I think the argument could be made that any of those teams that we talked about on the front of this podcast to take this full circle that are 10 and 11 or 11 and 10 the SEC, if they make a run, I think they could, you know, they have an argument to be a host coming out of the last three weeks in Hoover. So, yeah, I'll highlight first.
[00:51:49] Speaker B: Yeah, your Florida's, your Oklahoma's, your ole.
[00:51:51] Speaker A: Mrs. Florida, Oklahoma, ole Miss are Alabama, like Arkansas. I could see all of them hosting. If they go win the next three series and then, you know, win three, four games in Hoover and. And go home, I could see. I could definitely see them being hosts.
[00:52:05] Speaker B: They're. They're all two good weekends away from being a host, which is what
[00:52:12] Speaker C: being on the cusp of getting left out. So it's like, yes, 100%.
[00:52:17] Speaker B: All right. All right.
Well, we got a lot to look forward here. The final stretch of the season here. Got three more weeks left, and then we get conference tournament time. So, Jonathan, I'm sure we'll have you on again here soon, but thank you, sir. I'm sure we'll be texting feverishly in preparation for this weekend's battles.
Yeah. Awesome. Thanks for having you, Coach Glass.
[00:52:42] Speaker C: Appreciate you guys go watch some baseball.
[00:52:44] Speaker B: All right, thanks, everybody. Talk to you next week.
Thank you for listening this week. If you're watching on YouTube, go ahead and hit that subscribe button and smash that, like, button for us. Check us out on Apple Podcasts, Google podcasts, as well as Spotify. You can follow us on Twitter and Instagram MD baseball. If you want to find out what me and Keith do to help families and players navigate the recruiting process, go ahead and check us out on emdbaseball.com take a few minutes to check out our new online academy. I promise you'll get some good information out of that. Thanks again for listening. Check in with you next week.
