Episode Transcript
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[00:01:11] Speaker B: welcome to this week's edition of the Dugout Dish podcast. I'm Andy Kiri Kitties, joined by my Wonderful Co host, Mr. Keith Glasser. How we doing sir?
[00:01:20] Speaker A: Great. How are you?
[00:01:21] Speaker B: We're good. We're back for some more college baseball talk with Mr. Jonathan Grasse. As usual, how we doing?
[00:01:27] Speaker C: What's up guys? How are you?
[00:01:29] Speaker B: We had to put, we had to push the pause button with our, our pre podcast conversation because we want to save some of that, some of that heat for the, for the the pod here today. But for those of you who don't know, we are in the heat of playoff college baseball conference tournaments. Yale punched their ticket.
Holy Cross and Bucknell are fighting for the Patriot League spot over the next couple days. Holy Cross is, we're recording this on Monday, May 18th. Holy Cross currently holds a one to nothing series lead on Bucknell. Game two tomorrow and then tomorrow it all kicks off Hoover and then every single conference tournament after that. We are, we are fully underway and there's a lot of spots that are seemingly guaranteed and there is a small number of spots that a small number of teams are going to be vying for over the next couple or next week to see who's ultimately getting get in here. And that's kind of the conversation we were having is like who are some of these bubble teams? And Keith, I'll kick it over to you to get us started with a couple that are kind of top of mind for you that might need to do some stuff here this week to to solidify their spot. Who's who jumps off the page.
[00:02:51] Speaker A: Yeah, we hit the pause button When I brought up High Point, I, I just, I, they're in an interesting spot and I think it's a, it probably is going to highlight a lot of this stuff that we're going to talk about tonight with even the bigger conference teams and where they are from an RPI standpoint. They're obviously going to get the boost playing each other in their conference tournament and I think it might even highlight some of the stuff that you see at the back end of the year when games start getting canceled because of RPI and things of that nature.
But I thought High Point was an interesting, is an interesting case study just because, you know, they, they're 36 and 18, they're 17 and 7 in the big South. I personally don't see the Big south as being a two bid league if High Point was to not win the, the Big south tournament. But they, you know, arguably, I think, you know, Jonathan said that you said this like they have probably one of the best non power 4 conference series wins this year in beating Florida in Florida at the beginning of the year, they're three and five in quad one games. They're two and three in quad two games. You know, so they've, you know, they're, they're holding their own in those types of settings. But you know, there are 41 RPI, you know, but as, as we were talking about, you guys, you know, had brought up it, there's a chance, it's almost a net zero with some of the games that you're going to play at a neutral site in the conference tournament that you might, you know, get dinged a couple points from an RPI standpoint by winning those games. But like I said, I, I don't, I don't think that the Big south will be a two bit league. But I, like I said, I, I think that it's a, it's a very interesting spot to be in being 41 in the RPI and you go win a couple games in the conference tournament. If you lose the conference tournament championship, does that put you as like one of the first four out or one of the last four in based off of, you know, kind of what you've been able to do over the course of the year?
[00:04:47] Speaker B: Yeah, they're one of those teams that, and I'll have one after this. I'm going to kick it over to you, Jonathan. But like they're one of those teams that I think, I hate seeing a Power 4 team at the bottom of the conference who hasn't really won a lot of Games get in over a team that's 36 and 18 has gone on the road and won that type of game. Like I want to see high point in this tournament.
I think they've earned the right, but we'll probably get into it a little bit later. Sometimes it just doesn't work that way. But Jonathan, who's on, who's on your radar right here? I know you got a couple teams that you think need to, need to do some stuff if they want to, they want to get in this thing.
[00:05:25] Speaker C: Yeah, I think to jump out to me, the first one is South Alabama.
The Jags from South Valley, they, their resume is kind of tricky because the RPI is not great. Right. Like it's a traditionally a nod in, in terms of the rbi but with the amount of Quad one wins they have, you know, they could make some, you know, some serious headway here in the, in, in the Sunbelt tournament.
So I think that was one for me. The other one, the other big one which you know we talked about here a few seconds ago is the Mac, you know, the Mid American and Miami Ohio is going to be in that. I don't think there's any question about that. I think the other one with them is, you know, are they a two bid league?
You know, if Kent State doesn't win the tournament, are they a two bit league?
You know, obviously if they win the whole thing then, then they'll, they'll, there'll be two bids right there.
But it'll be, it'll be very interesting if Miami Ohio or Kent State doesn't win that league because then you're, you're kind of back on that, you know, bid stealing and, and then I would even think, I even think, honestly like I think Ken State probably has to win that tournament in order to get in.
You know the other one for me, the third one was, is the SoCon for sure.
You know, Mercer is going to be in.
But you know, the thing about the SoCon is there's a lot of teams bunched up at the top that, you know, Mercer won that league outright but you know there's a lot of teams. Western Carolina's right there, East Tennessee's right there, Wofford's right there, you know, and Sanford's right there.
That, that league could go any which way. And if you're a bubble team, especially one of those Power 4 bubble teams, you want Mercer to win that Southern Conference tournament in Greenville for sure because they are in no matter what.
And that's definitely another, another league that we're looking at, you know, potential bid stealing league. So
[00:07:27] Speaker B: yeah, that's an interesting one you bring up. A good point is that the SoCon has been, I don't want to say it's exceeded expectations but you know, obviously Mercer is the one that kind of steals the show right now. I mean they're 26 in the RPI. They're 43 and 13.
You know, I, I know they play in a, a hitting friendly park in a hitting friendly conference, but you know, when you look at the numbers, they're one of the best offenses in the country. Like they're dangerous and they just, they just went in and kind of put belt to ass to Georgia Tech. And I don't care if you play midweek. Like that's, that was a statement win that like hey this is a real team. Like we're not just beating up on some mid major stuff and we're better than them. Like that's a really good team. But to your point, Western Carolina, they're 56 in the RPI. It's a 30, 35 win team. We've seen East Tennessee do what they've been able to do recently. Wofford is back. Like they, you know, had a little bit of a down year last year, but you know, they're back and that's a good ball club and it's wide open there and it's definitely one of the conferences that you're looking at going.
It's a one bid league if, if, if Mercer wins it. It's a one bid league and you got to cross your fingers if you're some of these other bubble teams that, that Mercer gets that job done or that's a spot that's gone, period.
And I think there's a couple other conferences that stick out to me that are major threats to teams that are looking to get in. And the one, the other one bid league, no question about it's just a one bid league that there's potential for another team to win it for sure. Is the Big west like Santa Barbara's in, They're trending. They're probably going to be a two seed. But UC Irvine, they haven't been as, as good as I think a lot of people may have expected them to be in Cal Poly as well. But those are two pretty accomplished programs that are playing pretty well at the back end of the year here. And when you get into these conference tournaments, all it takes is one bad game and you get behind the eight ball and you got to win through the double Elimination. And those are the two. They are clear one bit leagues where you better be crossing your fingers if you're NC State or Virginia Tech or, you know, Michigan or ECU or UTSA that are kind of sitting on the cusp here, like one of those teams doesn't win that it gets a little bit tricky. Like, I was kind of running the numbers and we talked about this. I think there's about five spots left. There's about 59 guaranteed spots that are pretty cut and dry. Like between the. The AQ stuff and the AT larges, I think is about 59 where it's. You can't really make it legitimate argument that they don't belong there.
So you're looking at five spots and there's probably what, nine, maybe 10 teams probably.
The other conferences that I thought were interesting to take a look at and Keith, you brought this up is Conference usa. There's. There's three teams in that league that are going to get in, but there's six teams, maybe seven teams that can win that tournament.
If that fourth team wins, there's another spot, the American, the same way.
[00:10:47] Speaker C: Man.
[00:10:48] Speaker B: I. I don't.
[00:10:49] Speaker C: I think the Sunbelt's this. I mean, I know this and Coastal have been kind of like clearing above everybody else, but like, you know, South Al, like, you know, Troy, you know, like, I mean, there's some. There's some teams that could. That could definitely win that tournament that are not locked. And that's another bid because they have three as well. They got three guaranteed right there.
Like, I don't think you're budget on those three. So like, that's another. That's another bid steal then.
[00:11:19] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah, that one for sure.
And then, yeah, Comfort USA Sunbelt, you mentioned the Mac. We got the socom Big West. Like, there's six tournaments that if you're a fan of this, you need to watch, and there's six tournaments that if you're one of those nine, maybe 10 teams that I think are legitimately on the bubble, you better be, you know, you got to do what you need to do to get a couple wins here to get you back in the mix. But you got to hope that some of those don't get, you know, some of those tournaments don't fall the wrong way for you.
[00:11:57] Speaker C: I think the other cool part too, and, and obviously this discussion, right, will be, you know, always had, you know, a week from tonight or a week from today, really, you know, I think it's at noon selection show on Monday next week. So on Memorial Day but, you know, one of the things, one of the other big parts to this weekend is, right, is who is your 16 regional hosts and then who is your eight national seeds.
And while those conferences we mentioned, I don't think have too, too much, you know, involvement in either of those discussions, you know, those big conferences, you know, especially the Big Ten, the Big 12, I mean, really, I guess all four. Right. Big Ten, Big Ten probably is the lowest in terms of, like, things that could happen. I mean, Michigan, I think the other west coast host, right, between Oregon and usc, could be potentially in play.
You know, maybe Nebraska plays their way into a national seed or is a lock as a national seed, depending on how things shake out.
But the Big 12, the SEC and the ACC have huge implications in terms of hosting the national seeds.
[00:13:11] Speaker B: Yeah, absolutely.
What I know one of our tasks heading into this was to kind of dive into, you know, who we think, you know, as it stands right now, who are the teams that we think are going to host?
Coach Glass, what do you, what do you, what do you got here? Give it, give me your eight national seats, if you don't mind. I'm going to put you on the spot here. What do you got for your national seeds? And then we'll get into the rest of the host spots.
[00:13:40] Speaker A: Sure.
I think five are rather obvious. Ucla, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Georgia, Texas.
My last three, I didn't necessarily go too far out on a limb, but I have Texas A and M,
[00:14:01] Speaker C: I
[00:14:02] Speaker A: have Nebraska, which I've been on that train for a while, and I know that they stumbled a couple weeks ago, but I think that being clear by three games in the Big Ten from Oregon, I believe they're 23 and 7 in the Big Ten this year.
We're going to finish 20 and 10. I mean, no one was catching UCLA.
I thought they put enough together there. And then I, I have a little bit of a caveat here, and it's probably just because I've, we've been on them for a little while, but I think the last, I have two. For my last eight as my, as my last national, I have Kansas or FSU pending what they do in the conference tournament.
I think if they go, if I think FSU is the leader in the clubhouse, if they go and win a couple games and play very well, I think they're the national seed.
I think if they stumble and Kansas does very well and plays really well in the Big 12 tournament, I could see them being a national seed. So those are my eight.
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[00:16:11] Speaker B: All right, dig it. Got a couple differences there, but I think that's exactly why we're here. Jonathan, who do you got?
[00:16:17] Speaker C: I had my first five as a lock like, like Keith does, ucla, Georgia Tech, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas.
And then I think it gets tricky for your last three spots, right? And I had, I think I had six down here. I've seven down that could potentially be in those three.
And I think honestly a lot of it's going to have to do with what happens in the SEC tournament, right? Because I think you have, you know, you have four teams in the SEC that it's probably going to end up being one, probably two national seed spots, right? So you have, you have Alabama, you have Florida, you have Texas A and M, you have Auburn for those, you know, again, one to two spots. And then you have, I think if West Virginia or Kansas WINS the Big 12, that's going to be a national seed. So there's your other one, your, your two more and then Florida, Florida or I'm sorry, Florida State, if they run the table in Charlotte or they make a, at least a deep run maybe to the championship, I think they could find their way into that eighth spot as well.
So it's tricky, right? Like, you know, again, like you have the, you have the four SEC teams that, you know, one of them is going to be, one of them is going to do it because just by the numbers, like one of them will make a good enough run to get into and lock themselves into that spot. I think Alabama makes a lot of sense.
Auburn with the, with the quad one wins, you know, I think, you know, could potentially be, you know, pretty solidified in that eight spot or seven spot, I'm sorry.
And then Texas A and M, they, they kind of slid a little bit, you know, here the last few weeks, but, you know, a couple weeks ago we were talking about they were a lock and they were slam dunk. So it'll be interesting. You know, again, I think, I think if you get a, if you get a Kansas, West Virginia winner In the Big 12, I think that that's going to be a national. See, I think that's going to be the eighth.
And I think if Florida State could somehow, you know, make a deep run in, you know, in Charlotte, I think we, we have another conversation with, with potentially them as, as, you know, one of those seven, eight spots as well.
[00:18:41] Speaker B: Yeah, I think we're all aligned on ucla, Georgia Tech, unc, Georgia, Texas. Like, I think those are five that I'm not really sure if there's any outcome that would prevent them from sliding out of being a national seed. I think that's probably pretty fair to say the other three that I have as it stands right now, and I think it's a valid points both of you are bringing up there. There's a little bit of shuffling that can happen for these six, seven and eight spots, depending on if you see one SAC team kind of make a run at it. If A and M goes deep, I think they got a chance to be a national seed.
I think if Auburn goes deep, they have a chance to be a national seed. But for me, as it stands right now, I would have, I would have Alabama as my six, I would have Florida as my seven, and I got Kansas as my eight. I just think that what they've done. Big 12 regular season, barring, I think there's this scenario where even if they lost in the championship of the Big 12 to Virginia, West Virginia, although that would be a tough argument to make given what West Virginia did in going into Kansas. But I think that Kansas is overall resume. If you take away that one series and you just look at it across the whole season, I think they've earned the right to be a national seed at this point. So those are, those are my eight. I think we're like said, I think one through five.
I don't see much movement out of that. And I don't even know if they differ in terms of their, their host seat. Right. One through five, like, I don't know if anybody can get above those five.
I think the big battle is between can a couple of these teams that we've probably got slotted in that like 10, 11, 12, 13 range, can they play themselves in and then who can play themselves into a potential host spot, which is probably the next conversation. So, Jonathan, take this one. Pick your top eight. Who are the next eight.
Who's nine through 16 for you?
[00:20:41] Speaker C: Yeah, so I, I, and I had on paper I had Alabama, Auburn, and
[00:20:46] Speaker A: then Texas A and M is 6, 7, 8.
[00:20:48] Speaker C: I had all three in as national seeds.
That was kind of the, the order I had. And then from there then I had Florida, Florida State, Southern Miss, West Virginia, Nebraska, Mississippi State, Kansas, and then Oregon.
I think you're gonna get to, I think you're gonna get to. I said, I made a comment earlier about it in the Big Ten. I think you're gonna get one of those two West. You know, I think the reality is the committee is going to want two west coast hosts.
Makes a lot of sense, you know, with, you know, the auto bids and everything like that to put them. Plus you're gonna have Oregon State as a high, you know, two seed.
So you put Oregon in that, you know, 15, 16 range. I think it's just kind of natural. You put Oregon State right in there. They're not in the same conference anymore. They're the two seed in that, you know, in that pod.
And away we go. So I think, yeah, I think that's kind of where we're at.
So that would give you three Big Ten hosts, two Big 12 hosts,
[00:22:01] Speaker A: four
[00:22:03] Speaker C: from the ACC, three, three from the SEC or the ACC, and then the rest or the end of the one, Sunbelt, Southern Ms. And then the rest of the SEC.
[00:22:17] Speaker B: Okay, I got a couple, couple slightly different there. Coach Glass, what do you got? Who, who are your next eight? Who are the next eight?
[00:22:25] Speaker A: I had the other either fsu, Kansas, I had Oregon, Auburn. I actually did have Oregon State, Southern Miss, West Virginia, Arkansas, Bama.
[00:22:41] Speaker B: Yeah, okay.
[00:22:43] Speaker A: I just, I, I, I struggle with, I don't know about Oregon State. Like I can 100% see the argument, like I can get behind the argument Jonathan made that like, yeah, it's a two seed, a super high two seed. Like they only have five quad one games this year and they're two and three, but they're also 10 and three in quad two, 17 and two and quad three. But like when they won 43 games, they were supposed to, I know they stumbled late, but they're Delta hand in which they're an independent program and have to go play a lot of teams that, you know, other people aren't forced to or can't don't play. So I just think that they're, you know, you win 43 games.
I think you deserve to at least be in the conversation to be a host.
[00:23:31] Speaker B: Yeah. And I agree. I got, I got Oregon State into the one thing that I think is interesting because the committee has talked about this in recent years, that you evaluate a team on kind of where they are right now.
And if you're looking at Oregon State and to your point, Keith, like 43 wins, I don't care what your schedule is, that's legit.
And.
But they just lost the best right handed pitcher in the country like you. You're without that guy.
And I don't know how much that's going to weigh in. But it's a very different team if you're running Dax Whitney out as it would be for anybody. When you're running an arm of that quality out, it just changes everything that you do. Especially when you get into these tight windows in regionals and super regionals. Like when you got a guy like that, you are immediately a significant problem no matter where you go.
For me, I got A and M, Southern Miss, Auburn, Nebraska, Florida State, Oregon State, Oregon and West Virginia, in that order.
So I got West Virginia as my 16.
I could flip flop them a little bit, but I agree with you. I think, I think Oregon's in.
I think the USC series kind of sealed the deal there.
People might look at USC's RPI and I just think when you look at their overall resume, they've got one quad one win or two quad one wins. Excuse me. Like it just doesn't stack up with any of these other teams and they're a fantastic team and they might make some really good noise, they're going to pitch it, but I just don't think that they have that national seed resume. But there's three teams that I'm personally very interested in that I have on the outside looking in that I think could very well get into this conversation to be a host.
Mississippi State's one of them who I picked to win the national championship at the beginning of the year.
I had them out right now, but two or three more SEC wins and if they beat the right teams, I could easily see them slotting in. There's a lot of reasons that the NCAA would want to host at Mississippi State.
They're going to get 12,000 people at every game.
If you don't think money plays in, attendance plays a factor in this, I don't know what to tell you.
Same thing goes with Arkansas. That team's freaking scorching hot right now.
And it's interesting that they've kind of slid under the radar. But I think they got their 18th SEC win again.
Am I right? Is it 18 so far or is it 17?
[00:26:05] Speaker C: 17, I believe so.
[00:26:07] Speaker B: They win one game in the tournament. I think this will like Dave Van Horn and that staff has won 18 plus SEC games in like a ridiculous amount of years consecutively.
So you look, you think this is one of the teams that isn't as good as they've had recently. And you look up and you're like, they're right where they always.
And there's a lot of reasons to want to host there if they prove that they're worthy. And then the other one for me, kind of quietly, they don't really have a marquee series win, which might be the reason, might be the thing that kind of hurts them.
But Wake Forest wins a couple games in the ACC tournament and all of a sudden their RPI is going to be up inside that top 16, top 17 and they're going to be a 40 plus one team with a bunch of ACC wins. Like history will tell you that that's a host quality resume.
Do they get there? I don't know. But those are three teams I'm looking at right now that I think could play themselves into the host conversation if they can go deep in these tournaments.
[00:27:11] Speaker C: Yeah, I think, I think you made a couple good points. I think wake and just saying, you know, I'm just going to kind of mark a couple. Two seeds I had down that are a disaster in my opinion. If you see them in your, your, your, if that would, if that's what being a host gets you as you know your gift to host.
It's. It's going to be tough. But I mean Arkansas number one, right.
They, they know how to play this time of the year. Dave Van Horn. I, I think I said in our group chat, Dave Van Horn takes no prisoners in May. I mean that they'll be ready to go.
Wake obviously has maybe one of the best pitchers in the country in Levonis. Right. Like, you know, you're gonna have to deal with him depending on, you know, what that 2, 3 matchup is. That could be a mess for you if they can throw off game one.
Tennessee's kind of playing really good at the right time of the year.
You know, they lost.
Can't remember what it was a couple weeks ago. We talked about it though. They lost like a bunch of one run games and games they had leads in, they were like 0 and 8 or something like that. And if they went like 4 and 4, even 3 and 5, they would be like, I think they would have finished like second or third in the sec.
So again, it just goes to show you, like how tight the margins are in that league, but they're playing really well at the right time.
And then the other, the other two that you know, I think can be maybe a little bit overlooked, but Santa Barbara obviously may have the best pitcher in the entire country, you know, and, and the other one is Jacksonville State. So, you know, two non power fours that I think are kind of a, kind of a massive, you know, you're, you're a host and you, you get fortunate enough to host and you have them as your two seat. I think those teams are kind of some of the ones you want to star. Like I would prefer them not to be, you know, put in our pod with us.
[00:28:58] Speaker B: There's, there's another two seed matchup that could be very entertaining.
And you've got Mercer, whose RPI and ranking could really cleanly and nicely for the committee align with Georgia.
The amount of home runs that could get hit in that regional if Georgia and Mercer in that same regional could be absolutely comical.
Well, yeah, I'm here for it because that could be a lot of fun
[00:29:33] Speaker C: in the two spot there. Right. But Mercer in the three spot and we'll, we're going to have some bolts. There can be some home runs, like
[00:29:41] Speaker B: home runs that's going to be a regional you're going to want to tune into.
But I mean we've, we've talked about this on the side. Like being able to host, being able to be a national seed can change your, the whole complexion of things. And I think Georgia is one of those teams.
They are. Can Georgia win in Omaha? I don't know. I'd love to find out. But I know they can win at their park and you're going to have to, somebody's going to have to go through Athens and I think that that's a really tall task and it really is the value of being able to play in a park that you're built for to give you a chance to go to Omaha. And then once you get there, anything can shake out. But some of these teams that are playing right now wakes another one like Wake is a very different team if you have to play them in Winston Salem and if they get a chance to play at home and they find a way to sneak into this, into this hosting conversation, Wake becomes a legitimate threat. If they're a two seed or a three seed somewhere. I don't Think there'll be a three seed, but if they're a two seat somewhere, it's a little bit of a different setup for them.
Probably can't pitch off.
You don't have the home field advantage that your, your, your roster is built to, right. Some of these other teams, Arkansas, Mississippi State, like their home field advantage is the crowd, it's not necessarily the park. But I think a couple of these teams, they're built to win in their parks and Georgia is the one that jumps off to me. Like, I think they're a freaking total nightmare right now because of how well they play when they're in Athens. They're built for it.
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[00:32:11] Speaker C: Now, I mean, I, you know, I, me and Keith had them sneak it in the national seat, I believe at the midway point when a lot of people thought we were crazy, especially from an RPI standpoint, it didn't seem like they were going to be able to do it. And then they just ran away with the sec, which is, you know, if you follow college baseball closely, and obviously we do like to say that you ran away with the SEC regular season championship is a pretty, pretty, pretty high honor, to say the least.
[00:32:44] Speaker B: A little bit more impressive, although not much more than St. Joseph's wrapping up the A10 championship, I believe almost three full weekends in advance of the conference ending.
[00:32:59] Speaker C: Yeah, I think it was two weeks on Friday though they might have won it.
[00:33:03] Speaker B: I think they had seven. I think there was seven games left in a conference, right?
[00:33:07] Speaker C: Yeah. Yeah, you're right.
[00:33:07] Speaker B: And they had clinched it.
Yeah.
[00:33:10] Speaker C: I mean, what, what they did was absolutely incredible. I mean, you know, phenomenal year.
[00:33:16] Speaker B: Obviously, if they, it would be in the A10s best interest for them to win. That team's a nightmare to face in a regional right now because they're going to be a four seed and they can run out two dudes who can.
They're, they're both power four kickbacks. They've both kind of found their footing in St. Joe's it's, it's power stuff, it's power breaking ball.
They've got juice in their bats. Like that's a tough team if you get them as a four seed.
Although I could see them being a three seed somewhere.
You could see them being a three in West Virginia potentially or something like that. But that's an interesting team that I think is flying under the radar because I'm not sure a lot of people know that they've got two dudes at the front of their rotation that aren't your typical mid major arms. They're pretty, pretty dominant stuff that they're running out there, mid-90s stuff with really good breaking balls and they're, they're an interesting squad to keep, keep an eye on here and I, I mean, I hope they get in. You never know what can happen in that tournament, but you know.
[00:34:18] Speaker C: Yeah, I think.
[00:34:18] Speaker B: Damn.
[00:34:19] Speaker C: I think Yale's a tough four seed too. I mean, you know, obviously the Omen kid, I mean his numbers this year are a little skewed, but like, you know, they're a tough four seed. I mean any, any, any four seed where you really can't throw off as a host, you know, it gets tougher for you, right? Like statistically it just tells you, the math tells you if you have to, you have to use your one or two against a four seed. Like, you know, it, it's, it's a tall order, right? It's a tall order. Especially with, you know, depending on who the two and three seater are on your pod. So.
Yeah, I mean St. Joe's you know, 25 and five. I mean that's, that's pretty impressive to win that many conference games in a season. Like it's a lot of wins. So
[00:35:06] Speaker B: who do you guys got for some. Who's your last four in? Right. We were talking about the bubble teams. We were talking about the bid stealing. Assume that no bids get stolen. Right?
Who are those, who are those last four that you think you're going to find a way to slide into this? And do you have anybody that you really want to see that you think is going to get left out?
What do you got, Coach Glass?
[00:35:31] Speaker A: Go ahead, Jonathan.
[00:35:33] Speaker C: My last four in that I have in our North Carolina State, East Carolina, Virginia Tech and Kent State.
[00:35:44] Speaker B: I want Kent State to be in this tournament so bad.
[00:35:47] Speaker C: I do too. I just don't know.
[00:35:49] Speaker B: I just, I. If they don't win that tournament, I have no confidence, I have no confidence that the committee is Going to put them in over the. I know Virginia Tech has some numbers that.
And I have them in as one of my last four because I think they'll win a game because they're going to run out there Friday guy, and he's really, really, really good.
So I think they'll win a game. And if you win 16 games in the ACC, you're almost guaranteed to get in, but like, 29 regular season wins. For me, I don't care what conference you play in. For me, it's not enough. And it's the same reason that I'm not really behind the idea that Troy has a chance to get in this, but people seem to think that they do.
And I think Kent State, like, I just don't think that one of the Power 4 conferences should get a team in at 29 wins when you've got a Kent State team that's done what they've done. Like, I'd much rather personally see that team go and play and see what
[00:36:47] Speaker A: shakes out, but I got 39 wins.
[00:36:51] Speaker B: Yeah. And they're, you know, Michigan tried to boost the RPI and go play them, and Kent State freaking stomped them.
[00:36:57] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:36:58] Speaker B: Another team that I think is on the outside looking in and I don't think they should get in is Michigan. I think they're.
[00:37:04] Speaker A: I don't think Michigan.
Some people have them in. I don't think Michigan should be.
[00:37:10] Speaker C: I'm in agreement. I mean, they, they played the RPI game at the end and then. And then lost all those games and then got smoked by Ohio State to end the season. Like, what a. Like I'm in shock that people have them in. Like, like he said, like, I don't. I don't have them in. I don't actually. I don't even have them on the wall. I have them on the watch, actually. I'm sorry, my last watch team. But like.
[00:37:30] Speaker A: Yeah, I don't, I don't think that they're. I don't think. I mean, I could certainly see them getting in, but I don't.
I don't think they should.
I mean, you know, I mean, in. Ohio State's turnaround from last year. This year was absurd.
[00:37:43] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:37:43] Speaker A: Based off of, you know, based off of where they were to what they did this year. I mean, I don't think anyone had Ohio State being relatively competitive in the Big Ten, and they rattled off a really good season this year in the Big Ten. So kudos to that staff. Like, that's, that's. They did a really good job, but I Don't, I just don't, I don't see. I would much rather have Kent State in over Michigan. I, this and this is going to be the age old problem we get to this time of the year. Like I would much rather have teams that, you know from lower, you know, mid tier conferences that have 39, 40 wins over a power four conference. Who guy who team who finished 10th with 15 wins and we're 33. Like yes, I get that the conference is tough but you know, still going and rallying off 40 wins is impressive. That should, that should at least have you in the conversation to be in postseason play based off of your body of work for the year and not just based off the fact that like are we playing a tough conference? And I get it, like I get it, the SEC is a bear, the ACC is tough, they cannibalize each other this year. But like at some point what's the point of playing the games and winning 40 if it's not going to actually get you anywhere?
[00:38:53] Speaker B: Yeah, I mean Kent State, they're 3 and 1 in quad ones, they're 6 and 6 and quad twos.
[00:38:59] Speaker A: Yeah. They don't have a losing record against quad one, two, three or four.
[00:39:02] Speaker B: Yep. I mean I think, I really hope that they're able to get in.
[00:39:08] Speaker A: And I also, I, I, I do think this too. Like I, I think in some regards like it's hard for, it's harder for those types of schools to schedule quad one games like because some people don't want to play those types of teams at the start of the year because it's going to ding your RPI if you lose and then you know it.
You're in a weird part of this, you know. You know I shouldn't say you're in a weird part of the country. There's enough teams that you can play. But like, you know what I'm trying to say here?
[00:39:34] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:39:35] Speaker A: Like they're, they're, they're like that mid major hoops team that no one wants to play because they know that if they lose it's not going to end well.
And it varies year to year. But you get what I'm driving at.
[00:39:46] Speaker B: I agree with you. I think we're all on the, on the Kent State because it like and
[00:39:51] Speaker A: nothing against the Mid America Conference, but if you drop a series to a Mid America Conference team it's going to hurt your rpi. Yeah, it's just the reality of the situation.
[00:40:00] Speaker C: If you do it at home, it could single handedly keep you out of the tournament, like, that's just.
[00:40:04] Speaker A: Yes.
Not. Nothing here is negative. This is just the reality of the. Of the. The. The process that we have going on for selecting teams.
[00:40:15] Speaker B: Yeah.
The other team that I got that they need to win a game or two in the conference tournament. Let me preface it with that. But I think they're kind of flying under the radar. And we mentioned a couple of other teams around them, but Louisiana Lafayette just coming off the series win against Coastal, they're sitting at 41 in the RPI. Like, if they win a couple more here, I think they have a leg up as the third Sunbelt team if they don't win the tournament.
Just my personal thought, that would be my.
[00:40:51] Speaker C: See, I think they're in. I. I don't.
[00:40:53] Speaker B: You think they're in?
[00:40:55] Speaker C: Yeah, I just. I don't know. I think they're in. I think they did enough with that Coastal one on Sunday or Saturday. I'm sorry.
I don't think.
I mean, obviously.
[00:41:05] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:41:05] Speaker C: Right. You don't want to ever sweat it out, but I don't think that they're going to be in. I don't think they're going to get bad news next Monday. I'll put it that way.
[00:41:14] Speaker B: Any. Any wins they get. The good thing about playing in the Sunbelt right now with having six teams that are in the RPI that are pretty high, is that any win you get legitimately moves a needle and a loss isn't really going to hurt you.
[00:41:28] Speaker C: Correct. So.
Right. Like the big thing. And I think, Keith, I think you mentioned this earlier, like, the big thing or when we're talking high point. But sometimes it's not even necessarily the losses. It's. Sometimes you win and it still hurts your. Your rpi.
[00:41:45] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:41:46] Speaker C: In some of those smaller conferences. So it's. It's tricky. But, like, in, like, Ull's case, like you said, Andy, like, it's not really wins will help, but losses aren't really going to do anything for you. So, like, you're. You're in kind of good spot, like in, you know, Conference USA is the same. Is in the same boat, you know, not that they really. They don't have anything to worry about, but, like, when you're in those leagues that you have a bunch of schools that are, you know, right there in the middle, it's not really moving the needle one way or the other. And it really only can help if you make a run. Like. Right. Like if you ll gets to two more wins this week, that's huge for them because it's going to be, you know, at least quad. At least Quad two wins, maybe Quad one wins. Like, they're in. They're in a great spot. So
[00:42:34] Speaker A: who do they open with? They open with.
[00:42:42] Speaker B: Yeah, they're 40 right now.
[00:42:44] Speaker C: I think they're gonna be all right.
[00:42:46] Speaker B: I think they'll be all right.
The other two teams that I'm really having a trouble. I'm having trouble trying to pinpoint one specifically that people seem to have in the tournament is.
And I think they're really good ball club. Let me. Let me preface what I'm about to say, but, like, the American to me is like, a really confounding conference right now, because I don't know if they're deserve. I don't know if anybody in that conference really deserves to be an at large, but I think two teams will make it.
But.
[00:43:22] Speaker C: But the thing with them, right, like, the. What. What. What has happened the last, like, two weeks, like, there's no lock that either of them are gonna win it. So, like, that means, you know, like, Bid Steel, we'll just call Bid Steel one and then either UTSA or East Carolina, and I guess whatever team makes a run a little bit further than the other, they're pretty comparable.
[00:43:46] Speaker B: I mean, UTSA is one and two against quad one, they're 10 and six. Against quad two, they're 15. Like, it's not a dominant ball club. Like, they racked up 36 wins, but 25 of those came against quad three and quad four teams. And like, ECU is kind of the same. Like, when they play good teams, they're just okay.
And I think that when you're splitting hairs with these teams that are on the cusp, for me, I think that's where the conversation should really start, is like, well, how good do you play when you play other good teams?
And I look at their resumes and it's like.
I don't know, like, Arizona State's kind of the same for me. Like, they're getting ranked inside the top 25, but I don't know, there's something off about them.
I think they're in no matter what, but, like, there's a couple teams that people seem to be very confident that are going to be in this tournament. And I look at the resumes and I look at what they've done, and I just don't have the same feeling, if that makes sense.
The Virginia Tech's one of them, like, 29 and 23.
I just don't think that's enough wins. And I don't care how many you get in the acc. Like, I just don't think it's enough wins for somebody to go, yeah, that team should get in over Kent State or that team should get in over southeast Missouri, who's 38 and 16 and probably has zero chance of getting in if they don't win that tournament, despite the fact that they're 38th in the RPI.
Just my take.
[00:45:30] Speaker A: No, I, I like it.
I think the one tournament to watch this weekend, aside from all the other baseball we have being played. I'm actually interested in what's going to happen in the Big east tournament. Like, I don't think it's a two bid league.
[00:45:48] Speaker B: I was just thinking that it's.
[00:45:50] Speaker A: But you have UConn, Xavier and St. John's well tied at 15 and 6 and I believe UConn is the one seed by tiebreakers. St. John's is two, Xavier's three.
But like, that could be a legitimate heavyweight fight for that tournament. For that, for that AQ to get into the tournament. Yep.
And you had mentioned, Andy, you mentioned Xavier at the beginning of the year with the schedule that they played. I mean, they played 18 quad one games and they're 27 and 28.
[00:46:27] Speaker B: Yeah, they're an interesting one.
[00:46:29] Speaker A: St. John's had a good year. UConn, you know, had a good year.
So I think that's going to be an interesting tournament to kind of see what, who gets that aq.
[00:46:43] Speaker B: All right, before we, before we sign off here, I want to give a couple shout outs and you guys can come off the cuff of this too. But I think there's a couple programs out there.
And Keith, you had mentioned one, Ohio State, like the turnaround from the worst team in the Big Ten to. I think they finished 18 and 12 in the Big Ten this year. They did massive, massive turnaround.
But there's a couple other that I want to bring up.
One, San Diego State, the job Kevin Vance has done there, they won the Mountain West.
Just incredible turnaround.
Got a bunch of Power 4 kickbacks, flip the culture.
They're going to win that conference. They won the conference. Hopefully they won the conference tournament, are able to get in the tournament. I think just first year head coach, just remarkable.
The other one, and I'll leave room for you guys to come in on this too. But the other one, Keith, is Tarleton State.
I had to like 12 and 6. They're 34 and 19.
They look to be the favorite to win the whack. Obviously we're fans yeah, they won the
[00:47:58] Speaker A: regular season, which is awesome for them.
[00:48:01] Speaker B: And.
But there's a couple other out there,
[00:48:04] Speaker A: so the decent RPI, too. It's sitting at 68. 68.
[00:48:08] Speaker B: So we were, we were text messaging about this, so I'll leave some breadcrumbs, but there's another job out there in the, in the Southeast that's, that's being done by a former Division 2 head coach. Jonathan.
Give that a shout out if you don't think.
[00:48:23] Speaker C: I think, you know, number one, St. Joe's I think, which we hit on a plus.
And then the other one is from a guy that resided right down the street from St. Joe's for a long time. But the job that Jad did at North Alabama is nothing short of remarkable, to be honest with you. That place was a dumpster fire. They were a transition Division two.
I mean, they were a joke. I mean, it was. I don't even know how many wins they had when he got there, but it was not good.
And the fact that they won that regular season is so, so, so impressive.
You know, one of the things I think that sometimes goes unnoticed this time of the year and something I know we've talked about quite a bit, but, you know, sometimes you don't get into the tournament and you, it's because you just, you don't, you don't win your conference tournament, but it shouldn't go unnoticed to what you do in the regular season. And sometimes winning a regular season championship is more impressive than winning a tournament championship, in my opinion, because it's over, you know, 30 games, 24 games, 27 games, whatever it is. Right. Like, okay, so you get, you don't play good one time or two times in a weekend. Right. Like, you shouldn't, you shouldn't be dinged for that. Like, when you're talking about a real body of work and you're talking about, you know, places that have done a phenomenal job of rebuilding, in my opinion. What he did at North Alabama is absolutely incredible. So kudos to them and I hope for them that they can win the tournament this weekend and they can get that aq.
[00:50:10] Speaker A: No, they've done a great job there. They have a live lion on campus at that place, too.
[00:50:14] Speaker B: Yeah.
Did you coach against them when you were at Westow?
[00:50:18] Speaker A: Yeah, they were, they were in the Gulf South. Yeah, when I was at Westow.
[00:50:24] Speaker B: Yeah. There's high quality coaching jobs.
[00:50:28] Speaker A: Yeah. No, it's been, it's been a good year. There was. Someone just escaped me. I was literally just going to. Oh, the two that I would throw out there this year.
One, just the, the situation that's going on at Bucknell and what that program has been able to do to get into the Patriot League finals with Coach Knights leading the charge as Coach Heather faces some health stuff.
And we're pulling for Scotty as he's one of the nicest dudes in college baseball that you'll ever meet.
But for those kids to kind of shake off what's been going on in that program, be able to get to the Patriot League final, I think speaks to what, you know, not only Scotty has been able to do there for a very long time, but, you know, obviously Jason there as well. So hopefully everything, you know, eventually works itself out and we'll see Scotty hopefully soon.
But, you know, what, what they've kind of been able to do this year, I think, you know, especially the back half of the year with, with what went on, super impressive.
There was one other team that I wanted to highlight, and I forget who it was.
I got, I got sidetracked as Jonathan was talking about North Alabama when I was living there.
So that escapes me. And if it comes up back to me, I, I will, I will get back to it, but if not, we'll just go ahead and close this out.
[00:51:55] Speaker B: Yeah, great. Great call out with, with Bucknell.
Obviously our thoughts and, and prayers are with Scotty and the family and all the boys in the Bucknell program. And you know, we've, we've all known Jay for, for a long time. And,
[00:52:12] Speaker A: oh, I remember not to cut you off, but for, for you mid major out there.
Not that it's probably a surprise because they were good last year, but Dr. Barry Davis coming out of retirement.
[00:52:29] Speaker B: That's a good point.
[00:52:30] Speaker A: And winning the Mac with a 30, 30 and 17 rider team I thought was at least worth highlighting as they were. You know, I mean, they were good last year. They've been good the last a number of years. But he did retire, I believe, at the start of last year, and then something happened and he stepped back into the role just like literally the start of the season this year.
And they ended up winning the Mac and they had 30 wins. And, you know, it's not easy to step away from this game and then step back. You take a year or so off and come back in and win a conference tournament or win a conference regular season, which to Jonathan's point, like, that's usually more impressive than just being able to play for, get hot at the right time and play some, you know, play well, in tournament, you did that body of work over 27 games.
[00:53:18] Speaker B: Not a good poll there. We, we had the pleasure of competing against Dr.
Back in the day. Thankfully, we got the better half of him back then, but no, very, very impressive job there.
Anything else you two gentlemen would like to add before we sign off and go into our holes and watch college baseball for the next week before we figure out what the heck we got right and wrong on Monday?
[00:53:47] Speaker A: I'm good.
[00:53:47] Speaker B: Speak now or forever hold your peace.
[00:53:50] Speaker C: I'm good, baby.
[00:53:51] Speaker B: All right, well, those bubble teams better keep their fingers crossed because there could be some bid stealing going on here in the next week and I'm looking forward to following it. So, Jonathan, as always, thank you, sir. We'll have you back.
[00:54:06] Speaker C: Thank you guys for having me on.
[00:54:09] Speaker B: Thanks everybody for listening.
We'll talk to you then. Thanks, everybody.
Thank you for listening this week. If you're watching on YouTube, go ahead and hit that subscribe button and smash that like button for us. Check us out on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, as well as Spotify. You can follow us on Twitter and Instagram MDBaseball. If you want to find out what me and Keith do to help families and players navigate the recruiting process, go ahead and check us out on emdbaseball.com take a few minutes to check out our new online academy. I promise you'll get some good information out of that. Thanks again for listening. Check in with you next week.
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